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abio10 pgtw 211800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/reissued/211800z-211800zmar2010//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 9.4s 85.9e,
is now located near 7.5s 89.0e, approximately 540 nm west-northwest
of Cocos Island. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery
shows deep convection has become more persistent over a low level
circulation center (LLCC) that has continued to organize over the
past 24 hours. Surface conditions remain favorable with sea surface
temperatures near 29 celsius. Upper level analysis indicates that an
anticyclone located to the southeast of the LLCC is causing convec-
tion to be sheared to the west, with moderate to high levels of
vertical wind shear (vws). Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1006 mb. Based on the consolidation of the LLCC, favor-
able surface conditions, and vws supporting upper level outflow, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to fair.
(2) no other suspect areas.//
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