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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 
727 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


Update... 
issued at 727 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


Convection has been persistent across far southeastern Kentucky early 
this morning. The latest NAM and sref continue to show some activity 
lingering into the middle-morning hours. As such...will allow for higher 
probability of precipitation in the far east. The fog has also been more spotty this 
morning...so will downplay this into the middle-morning hours. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tuesday) 
issued at 351 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


A leftover outflow boundary moving through southeastern Kentucky has 
sparked a broken line of showers and thunderstorms...with even a 
stray shower currently affecting the jkl office. Will include some 
isolated probability of precipitation early this morning given these trends...although the 
main line looks to exit the southeast between 4 and 4:30 am. 


Otherwise...upper level ridging will be building in through the day 
today across the commonwealth in response to a deep trough slowly 
nudging east across the plains. This will result in more isolated 
convective coverage. Despite a lack of deeper moisture...the latest 
forecast soundings show quite a bit of instability...so anything that 
does initiate could be strong. Will highlight this in the severe weather potential statement. Highs 
will top out in the middle 80s for most. 


Skies will clear out tonight...allowing for some fog once again. Lows 
will bottom out in the low to middle 60s. On Tuesday...the plains trough 
will be getting a little closer and any capping will be weak. Will 
allow for scattered convection during the afternoon hours...with some 
of this possibly becoming strong once again...especially near the 
Bluegrass counties. Highs will soar into the upper 80s...threatening 
record highs for the date at jkl and loz. 


Long term...(tuesday night through sunday) 
issued at 425 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


The period should begin rather active as an upper level low initially 
over the plains/MO valley region and a shortwave trough extending to 
its south approaches the MS valley and lower Ohio Valley region Tuesday 
night into early on Wednesday. The associated surface low should deepen a bit 
as it tracks toward the western Great Lakes region Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. A low level jet should transport rather abundant moisture into 
the region with precipitable water forecast to increase to around 1.4 to 1.5 inches. 
The upper level low will gradually open up with a shortwave trough 
working across eastern Kentucky later on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models bring 
some increasing winds aloft into the area at that point...though the 
stronger shear should remain to our north. The upper level low should 
work slowly east southeast reaching the upper Ohio Valley region and 
Middle Atlantic States Thursday night into Friday. At the surface...the low will 
track into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and then northeast 
across the St Lawrence Valley with the trailing cold front crossing 
eastern Kentucky on Thursday. 


There will probably be a lull in convection for a time on Tuesday night 
between rather diurnally driven confection from Tuesday and resurgence 
likely to our west and southwest with strengthening low level jet and 
approaching upper level shortwave late Tuesday night. Model forecast 
instability and shear along with timing of models bringing prefrontal 
convection into eastern Kentucky Point toward the possibility of strong to 
locally severe storms possible anywhere in the County Warning Area though the north 
will be closer to the stronger low level jet core as highlighted by 
Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook. The potential for locally heavy rain and some of 
the storms to become strong will be highlighted for Wednesday in the severe weather potential statement. 
Likely probability of precipitation were used for Wednesday in line with the model consensus and 
MOS guidance. The mav numbers continue to appear too warm unless 
there ends up being little cloud cover on Wednesday and high temperatures were 
trended lower toward model consensus/met guidance. 


Probability of precipitation were continued behind the boundary into Friday as the upper level 
system gradually works across the region. The extended models 
appear to be a in a bit better agreement with the upper level 
low/shortwave trough to move across the area Thursday into Friday. 
However...later in the period the GFS may be suffering from some 
convective feedback issues across the plains to western Great Lakes 
region Sat into sun while the European model (ecmwf) continues to develop convection 
with disturbances in northwest flow interacting with a warm front advancing 
toward the lower Ohio Valley region late in the period. The extended 
grid Load model consensus had slight chance to chance probability of precipitation for sun 
and this was generally followed. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) 
issued at 727 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


Patchy IFR or worse fog will mix out of the deeper river valleys 
through the middle-morning hours. A few showers or thunderstorms will 
be possible during peak heating...however these should be isolated 
enough to leave out the mention at the taf sites. MVFR fog will 
threaten late tonight once again. 


&& 


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...geogerian 
short term...geogerian 
long term...jp 
aviation...geogerian