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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 41 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
614 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 436 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Large low pressure system over the northern plains/upper Midwest 
continues to drift slowly eastward...and will continue to bring 
unsettled weather to the area through Thursday. High pressure will 
build into the area as the weekend approaches. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 436 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Large mesoscale convective system moved through the area overnight and has rapidly 
weakened and dissipated over the last hour or so. Trailing 
stratiform showers/isolated thunder associated with the southern 
portion of the complex may continue to impact parts of the 
forecast area remainder of the night and into the morning hours. 
Appears likely that things may calm down during the morning and 
ramp back up again later this afternoon and into the overnight. 
Have attempted to depict this in probability of precipitation with minimum numbers late 
morning and numbers increasing late this afternoon. 


On temperatures...with cloud tops cooling and storms dissipating...expect 
that at least some sunshine will break through later this morning 
and into the afternoon. With any sunshine...temperatures should be able 
to rapidly climb...so will lean to warm side of guidance and 
expect highs back in the 80s again. If cloud cover is thicker or 
more persistent than expected...this could be too warm. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/... 
issued at 436 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Guidance depicts development of a secondary surface low to our 
west this evening along frontal boundary...and this should help 
set the stage for perhaps another organized round of thunderstorms 
this evening into tonight. Given expected dynamic support and 
continued warm moist airmass in place...slight risk again appears 
very reasonable. 


Organized storms could persist into midday Wednesday before giving 
way to more showers/isolated thunder Wednesday night. Upper low 
will move through the area Thursday into Thursday evening...and 
showers will be possible. Will not include thunder at this time as 
forecast soundings depict very weak and shallow instability. 


On temperatures...consensus numbers appeared fine on lows...but appeared 
too cool at times on highs...although this is acknowledged as a 
low confidence area of the forecast with major potential for 
convection to disrupt these expectations. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday night/... 
issued at 314 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Generally dry weather is anticipated during this period as ensembles 
agree in building a large surface high across the region. This will 
result in dry weather with temperatures at or below seasonable normals due 
to the cool Canadian air for the beginning of the period. Temperatures will 
gradually warm on Sunday and some of the models...notably the GFS 
depict a weak upper level disturbance making its into central 
Indiana from the northwest Sunday and Sunday night...which could possibly 
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Not very confident in 
this..so only included a slight chance of thunderstorms during this 
time. Early next week the ridge progresses eastward and 
warmer...more humid air arrives on southerly winds on the back of 
the ridge. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 211200z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 611 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Atmosphere likely to destabilize late in the day with more 
thunderstorm development on tap. Could see wind gusts to 40 knots 
with sustained winds 20 knots from the southwest within the line 
overnight...but still hard to nail down timing at this point so 
will go with thunderstorms in the vicinity during this time for now. Winds gusting to 
around 20 knots staring later this morning. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...nield 
near term...nield 
short term...nield 
long term....smf 
aviation...smf 


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