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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 
1150 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Aviation update...for 06z taf package... 
continue to see thunderstorms in the vicinity at kcsv with storms developing along trough 
axis draped just south of the terminal. Should continue another 
couple hours after issuance. Light fog already impacting kcsv as 
well. Introduce br at all terminals in first three hours of taf 
period. Do not think br will be as thick as previous night due to 
cloud cover and outflows from afternoon convection bring light 
wind shifts. Models suggest precipitation to increase across all 
terminals beginning around 18z. Included thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time to 
reflect this change. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 648 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Update... 
per current regional surface observation...satellite imagery...radar mosaics... 
and short term model consensus have updated the suite of forecast 
products to reflect variable cloudiness across the middle state through 
the remainder of tonight along with a slight chance of shwrs/tstms... 
expect plateau where a chance should persist per upper level troughing 
influences. Will continue with patchy fog mention after midnight too... 
but overall do not anticipate as much patchy fog as developed this 
morning. Current temperatures in line with forecasted lows and thus changes 
were not made. 


Previous discussion.../issued 626 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Aviation update...for 00z taf package... 
dialed back br concerns a bit for the next 12 hours due to peak 
heating dews being lower than guidance suggested. Still think br 
will be possible for all three terminals...but just improved 
forecast visibilities to be a little less significant. Current 
radar only shows isolated convection in vicinity of kcsv so 
removed vicinity mention in kbna and kckv. Believe there is enough 
dry air aloft to prevent any more development after nightfall. 
Although models are suggesting development overnight so amendments 
may be needed if this is realized. 


Previous discussion... /issued 157 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Discussion...scattered convection going on east of Nashville this 
afternoon where low-level moisture is most abundant. Upper 
trough remains stalled out just to our east, so look for this 
pattern to persist as temperatures continue to rise and the 
atmosphere remains at least moderately unstable. Look for the middle 
state to finally dry out Sunday night, with the upper ridge moving 
across the area on Monday, thereby paving the way for the next 
active weather system to close in on middle Tennessee toward the 
middle of the week. There will be a slight drop-off in 
temperatures following this cold frontal passage, but even our 
Post-frontal readings late in the week won't be too far off 
seasonal normals. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has no severe weather risk 
areas pegged for middle Tennessee through day 8, so we are 
expecting general thunderstorms only. 


&& 


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Tb12