Updated: 4:00 PM EST on February 01, 2015
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 50F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Overcast with snow showers, then snow after midnight. Low of 28F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the West after midnight. Chance of snow 90%.
Overcast with a chance of snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 32F with a windchill as low as 18F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 16F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 41F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 27F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 54F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and rain showers after midnight. Low of 30F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the North after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50% .
Overcast. High of 34F with a windchill as low as 19F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 18F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 21F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 41F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 45F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Clear with a chance of rain. High of 43F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Clear. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 39F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 46F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Clear with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
... A deepening area of low pressure will bring breezy conditions and
light snow to parts of eastern Kentucky late tonight into early
A strong low pressure system will cut across the southern Ohio
Valley tonight and into the day Monday. Lingering precipitation...
following soaking rains... will change over to snow from west to east
around dawn Monday. The snow could come down briefly moderate for a
time before tapering off from west to east during the late morning
hours. Most accumulations will be limited to a dusting... but the
ridges could pick up as much as a half an inch. Deeper into eastern
Kentucky the snow will linger longer and amounts are expected to be a
bit higher. Fore these locations... winter weather advisories for snow
and blowing snow are in effect for Monday morning and into the
afternoon. Brisk winds will accompany the snow helping to lower
visibilities for a time early Monday morning. In addition... the
arrival of the colder air towards dawn Monday will result in a
potential for slick spots on area roads... especially on overpasses
and bridges. Motorists are urged to use caution when traveling Monday
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: APRSWXNET Jamestown KY US, Jamestown, KY
Updated: 5:34 PM CST
|Temperature: 50 °F||Dew Point: 49 °F||Humidity: 96%||Wind: South at 2 mph||Pressure: 29.61 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Balcony Bend, Jamestown, KY
Updated: 6:09 PM CST
|Temperature: 50.2 °F||Dew Point: 49 °F||Humidity: 96%||Wind: South at 1.0 mph||Pressure: 29.62 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.10 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Updated: 5:25 PM EST
|Temperature: 48 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 93%||Wind: SSE at 16 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 42 °F||Graphs|
Location: RAWS SOMERSET KY US, Ferguson, KY
Updated: 6:01 PM EST
|Temperature: 48 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 94%||Wind: SE at 9 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in||Windchill: 44 °F||Graphs|
Location: South Fork Furniture, Liberty, KY
Updated: 6:49 PM EST
|Temperature: 50.3 °F||Dew Point: 48 °F||Humidity: 93%||Wind: South at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 29.64 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: APRSWXNET Liberty KY US, Windsor, KY
Updated: 6:34 PM EST
|Temperature: 49 °F||Dew Point: 47 °F||Humidity: 94%||Wind: SSE at 4 mph||Pressure: 29.65 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in||Windchill: 48 °F||Graphs|
Location: APRSWXNET Somerset KY US, Acorn, KY
Updated: 6:29 PM EST
|Temperature: 48 °F||Dew Point: 44 °F||Humidity: 86%||Wind: South at 6 mph||Pressure: 29.65 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
Location: Woods Edge Drive, Somerset, KY
Updated: 7:11 PM EST
|Temperature: 48.0 °F||Dew Point: 43 °F||Humidity: 83%||Wind: North at -||Pressure: 29.71 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 48 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 7:05 PM EST
|Temperature: 48.2 °F||Dew Point: 47 °F||Humidity: 97%||Wind: SSE at 5.0 mph||Pressure: 29.56 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in||Windchill: 46 °F||Graphs|
Location: HALLS BACKYARD WEATHER, SCIENCE HILL, KY
Updated: 7:12 PM EST
|Temperature: 48.2 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 92%||Wind: ENE at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 29.58 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in||Windchill: 46 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 411 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 Short term...(this evening through Monday night) issued at 335 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 19z surface analysis shows a rather deep area of low pressure moving across the Mississippi River into Illinois. A cold front from this is stretched to the southwest down into Texas. As this low pushes further into the Ohio Valley...the core of its precipitation shield is now entering eastern Kentucky with light to moderate rains overspreading the area. Under thick clouds and the arriving rains...temperatures have peaked this afternoon with readings in the middle 40s to lower 50s across the area. Dewpoints...meanwhile...are coming up with the arriving rains and now vary from the low to middle 20s in the east and the upper 30s to lower 40s to the west. Wind have also picked up with the arrival of the rain with gusts to 20 to 25 kts from the south over the Cumberland Valley and 15 to 20 kts elsewhere. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they whip a sharp trough through the southern Appalachians by midday Monday. In the northwest flow that follows...a trailing shortwave will pass through eastern Kentucky into early Tuesday morning...seen as strongest in the European model (ecmwf) when compared to the nam12 and GFS/Gem. Have mainly followed a model blend through Monday night with an emphasis on the higher resolution details from the nam12 before leaning more on the GFS and nam12 with the trailing wave through Tuesday morning. Sensible weather will feature a good soaking rain for east Kentucky through the evening and into the overnight along with breezy conditions as the wrapped up surface low moves through. The low passes to the east by sunrise Monday with winds switching to the west and increasing as the tight gradient on the low/S backside exits the area. In addition to the breezy conditions in the wake of the low...an Arctic boundary will bring in much colder air from west to east across the County Warning Area between 08 and 13z resulting in a switch over for any lingering precipitation to snow. The winds will become more upslope while the surface low further deepens into Monday morning. This will add to the snow fall for our far eastern counties with the winds blowing the snow around keeping the visible low in any showers. Expect the snow to be worst between 11 and 15z for most of the area with light accumulations expected aside from the ridges and locations in the far east. Along those places near the Virginia border some higher snow totals will be possible with between 2 and 3 inches seen on the peaks above 2500 feet and up to 2 inches on the lower ridges while valleys generally pick up an inch or less. Finally...in addition to the snow and winds...the cold air could move in quick enough...trailing the rains and limited dry slotting to result in icy conditions on area roads. For this reason...will have an Special Weather Statement or Winter Weather Advisory out for the entire area...hitting the east progressively harder for amounts and impacts. Our Virginia border counties will have an advisory for snow going until 23z while to the west the advisory will run through 19z with lesser totals. The snow tapers off from west to east Monday afternoon with cold air advection sending temperatures down into the teens most places by dawn Tuesday...though low clouds will likely keep readings from completely bottoming out for eastern parts of the area. Used the bcconsshort followed by the superblend as a starting point for temperatures...dewpoints...and winds through Tuesday morning. Made only minor adjustments to winds and temperatures to account for the terrain effects of the cold air advection winds late tonight into Monday morning. As for probability of precipitation...ended up on the high side of MOS guidance through Monday afternoon owing to the tendency for the model/MOS guidance to under do upslope snow situations. Long term...(tuesday through sunday) issued at 410 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 Tuesday will start out with generally zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure in place. Temperatures will warm from the previous day with surface winds becoming more srly and skies clearing...though still expected to be a few degrees below seasonable normals. A shortwave will begin to traverse along a trough axis well north of the region...reaching the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday evening and strengthening as it shoots off to the southeast and across the eastern portion of Kentucky. This course of action...including the amplitude and timing...is very much a result of which model is correct. As of now...there is still quite a bit of disagreement between the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...which leads to low confidence on the resulting surface features. The GFS continues to be the strongest with the system...showing a 1009mb low pressure system moving across New England Wednesday evening. The European model (ecmwf) is in a similar location for the low...but is slightly weaker at 1013mb as of the 12z run. A cold front will extend southwest of this low...and bring frontal precipitation to much of the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for the GFS...and somewhat later Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for the European model (ecmwf) and Gem. Regardless...this will be a quick hitting system...with much of the moisture falling along or just behind the frontal passage. If this holds true...winds will make a quick shift to the north and begin pulling in much colder air around the time the precipitation starts. This will quickly drop temperatures below freezing...so expect any precipitation that falls to be mainly in the form of snow...with maybe a small amount of rain at the onset. Highs on Thursday are only expected to reach the upper 20s to around 30. Dry air will then quickly work in and cut off any remaining snow potential sometime Thursday afternoon. Do note...given the discrepancies between the models...the timing of onset and departure is likely to change. This will then likely affect the snow totals. At this time...forecasting generally a half inch or less across the County Warning Area...with the highest amounts in the southeast where snow will linger the longest and some upslope flow will take place. After this system passes through the region...upper levels will slowly transition back to zonal flow. Colder Canadian air flowing into the region will eventually give way to more seasonable norms by Saturday. High pressure will be in control through much of the remainder of the extended. Our next threat for precipitation will occur sometime Saturday night/Sunday on day 7 of the forecast as models hint at another shortwave developing over the Central Plains. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) issued at 115 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 VFR conditions will persist through most of the afternoon. However... the ceilings will begin to drop as moderate rainfall begins to move into the area along with a lowering of the visibility. In general...IFR and below conditions can be anticipated through the area after 00z with the moderate rains moving through. The rain will then change to snow as the colder air moves in with reduced visibility and lower visible being the main AVN concern. Winds will be increasing through the afternoon and evening from the south to southwest. These will start shifting to the southwest and later tonight and then to the west predawn. Gusty winds will blow as high as 25 kts through the night and into the day Monday as the system moves on through. These winds...combined with snowfall will keep the visible rather low through middle morning in most places. Look for conditions to start improving by midday from west to east. && Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM EST Monday for kyz088- 118-120. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 am to 2 PM EST Monday for kyz086- 087-104-106>117-119. && $$ Short term...greif long term...jmw aviation...greif