Monticello, Kentucky Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 32°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: North 10 mph
  • Humidity: 100%
  • Visibility: 7.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 32°
  • Pressure: 30.47 in. -
  • Heat Index: 24

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Next 12 Hours

7  am
10  am
1  pm
4  pm
7  pm
Overcast
Overcast
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Clear
Clear
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
34°
30°
37°
41°
37°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Monday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 41 °
  • Low: 32 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Tuesday
  • Rain
  • High: 55 °
  • Low: 46 °
  • Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Rain
  • High: 52 °
  • Low: 19 °
  • Rain
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 30 °
  • Low: 7 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 10 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Monticello, Kentucky

Updated: 4:00 AM EST on March 02, 2015

  • Monday

    Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 41F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

  • Tuesday

    Overcast with rain. High of 55F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with rain. Low of 46F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.4 in. possible.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with rain. Fog early. High of 52F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with snow, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low of 19F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%.

  • Thursday

    Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 30F with a windchill as low as 16F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 7F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 10F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 48F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 7F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 52F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 48F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 21F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 28F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Clover Pointe, Somerset, KY

Updated: 7:32 AM EST

Temperature: 32.7 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: NW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 25.30 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Balcony Bend, Jamestown, KY

Updated: 6:39 AM CST

Temperature: 31.5 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.45 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: RAWS SOMERSET KY US, Ferguson, KY

Updated: 7:01 AM EST

Temperature: 32 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: NW at 7 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: Wastewater plant, Somerset, KY

Updated: 7:18 AM EST

Temperature: 32.4 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: NE at 3.7 mph Pressure: 30.24 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: South Fork Furniture, Liberty, KY

Updated: 7:41 AM EST

Temperature: 32.2 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: North at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.49 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Woods Edge Drive, Somerset, KY

Updated: 7:40 AM EST

Temperature: 32.7 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 88% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.53 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Waste Water Treatment Plant, Science Hill, KY

Updated: 7:35 AM EST

Temperature: 30.1 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: North at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.38 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: HALLS BACKYARD WEATHER, SCIENCE HILL, KY

Updated: 7:41 AM EST

Temperature: 30.6 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.40 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 
714 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Update... 
issued at 658 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Updated the hourly grids through 14z this morning to add in some 
patchy drizzle. The precipitation has been a bit slower to exit 
the area than the forecast had been calling for...so the update 
was necessary. Also...there have been a few reports of a light 
glaze of ice on cars and other elevated surfaces around the 
area...including some area roads. Slick roads will be a 
possibility for areas the received rain overnight and that are 
below freezing. Temperatures should be warm enough by 9 or 10 am 
for any slicks on areas to have melted and cleared up. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tuesday) 
issued at 305 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015 


An area of light rain showers will continue to move across the 
area early this morning along an eastward advancing cold front. 
The front is expected to move fairly slowly...so the rain 
accompanying it is forecast to last through 11 or 12z this 
morning. Areas of fog will continue be an issue through early 
this morning as well. The precipitation and fog should be gone by between 
12 and 13z. Once the front has moved off well to our 
east...eastern Kentucky should remain precipitation through late 
this evening. Our next round of active weather will begin to 
affect the area late Monday night into Tuesday as a weak impulse 
that is forecast to move out of the Southern Plains...phases with 
a large scale upper trough that is expected to move out of the 
central rockys and across the northern plains and Great Lakes 
region. The southern system will eventually morph into a warm 
front as it begins to merge with the northern system. As this 
boundary moves north across central and eastern Kentucky...light 
rain is expected to break out along it. At the onset of the 
event...warm moist air aloft will push across and north of the 
front...overriding cold air at the surface. Freezing 
rain...sleet...and perhaps even some snow will be possible as the 
rain falls into the cold air below. The good news is that the warm 
front should move through the area quickly enough to prevent any 
significant ice accumulations from occurring. The warm front is 
then prognosticated to stall just to our north. After this happens...a 
wave of low pressure will form along the boundary and begin 
pushing the boundary eastward. This will allow cold air from the 
northern and Central Plains to also begin pushing 
east...transforming the boundary into a potent cold front. 
Widespread rain will accompany the cold front as it moves slowly 
east across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The rain could be 
heavy at times and could lead to flooding problems across the 
area. Areas particularly prone to flooding will be the 
Kentucky...Cumberland...and Big Sandy river basins...whose 
headwater areas still have a good deal of snow cover in place. 
Enough snow has already melted across eastern Kentucky to cause 
the ground to be completely saturated. Any additional rainfall 
that occurs over the next few days will runoff almost immediately 
into area creeks...streams...and rivers. This situation will need 
to monitored closely. 


Temperatures during the short term will start out quite a bit 
below normal...with todays highs expected to top out in the low to 
middle 40s across the area. Tonights temperatures will not cool off 
nearly as much as we have seen the past several nights...as winds 
will eventually shift the southeast...leading to downslope warming 
in our east and allowing for warm air advection at the surface. 
The main push of warm air is expected to take place during the day 
on Tuesday...as winds shift to the south and begin advecting warm 
air directly off the Gulf of Mexico into the region. Highs on 
Tuesday could easily maximum out in the middle to upper 50s area wide. 


Long term...(tuesday night through sunday) 
issued at 430 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015 


The extended forecast period begins on Tuesday night with a 
rather active and high amplitude pattern in place. Underway and 
already impacting the Ohio Valley at this time frame is an 
enlongated longwave trough over the central Continental U.S. With the trough 
axis extending southwest into The Four Corners region where a 
closed low lies entrenched over the Baja California region. During this 
time...a strong an active jet core extends from over the southwest 
to the Great Lakes region with the highest speeds with the jet maximum 
over the western Great Lakes of 140 to 160 knots. Heading into the 
day on Wednesday...the mentioned low over the Baja California ejects into the 
Southern Plains while the enlongated trough moves through the 
central Continental U.S.. the developed lift and dynamics over the MS valley 
and into the Ohio Valley is quite substantial at this time as the 
middle and upper level flow take a southwest to northeast trajectory. 
This sets the stage for pretty efficient rainfall at onset of the 
first system into Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday 
and then another possible winter storm like event into middle week. 
This unfortunately exacerbates the concern for flooding in 
conjunction with the snowmelt and possibly even more snow on top 
of that. 


Concerning the lower levels...high pressure centered just off 
shore in the Atlantic nudging into the southern portions of the 
southeastern Continental U.S. Through the middle week will keep a nearly stalled 
southwest to northeast orientation of a surprisingly strong 
gradient surface cold front. The development of several waves in 
the middle levels along this front Tuesday night into Wednesday and 
through Thursday will keep a significant quantitative precipitation forecast over the area. This 
will once again keep flooding a threat with the amount of precipitation 
expected. An additional shot of moisture continues as the last 
wave rides northeast along the front and this feature finally 
kicks the surface low out to sea by Thursday night. It is Worth 
mentioning...that this pattern does not happen often...especially 
postfrontal heavy snowfall during the last half of the winter 
season. However...there does seem to be some consistency in the 
models and now the NAM and sref as this event has come into that 
time period. Ensemble means shown from westward products are indicating 
much more in the way of snow and have at least collaborated with 
westward to come up with some slightly lower snow values and snowfall 
forecasts are in line with those trends of collaboration. Another 
helpful indicator of at least the blocking needed for that 
southwest to northeast orientation of the nearly stalled front is 
the ensemble mean of the nao. A sharp drop in values from the nao 
product are occurring during the time of this systems set up. 
While not necessarily a sharp drop into negative values...this 
indication would be enough for some blocking over the Atlantic and 
is enough to have some confidence in the quantitative precipitation forecast and snowfall values 
displayed in the forecast. It is very possible to be going 
straight from a flood concern to a snowfall concern in a matter of 
24 hours. 


As for snow ratios into Wednesday night and Thursday...there is 
some concern at onset of this system that some warm air aloft may 
create some freezing precipitation which would lower snow totals a bit. 
Given all this...the gradient moving through would ensure cold 
enough surface temperatures and therefore have gone with a strong mention 
in the severe weather potential statement. Quantitative precipitation forecast values will go from 2 to 2.50 inches and snowfall 
in the 6 to 8 inch range. 


The pattern GOES quite after Thursday with surface high pressure 
moving in and a noticeable lack of Arctic air that has usually 
been following these systems this winter...though still below 
normal highs for Friday. Saturday highs finally get back to near 
normal. By Sunday...another wave dropping into the Southern Plains 
assists in surface low development and this feature track north 
bringing additional possible winter weather to far southeastern 
Kentucky. Obviously...this system is way too far out to pin down 
winter precipitation if any. But it does continue to highlight an active 
and wet pattern through the extended. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) 
issued at 714 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Prevailing conditions will vary from LIFR to MVFR at the tat sites 
early this morning. Low ceilings will likely persist for the next 
couple of hours as a departing cold front drags cold air into the 
region on northwest winds. Patchy freezing drizzle will be 
possible at jkl and loz for the next couple of hours...and could 
lead to a light glaze of ice forming on elevated surfaces and 
other objects. The precipitation should be out of the area by 9 
am. The low ceiling we have been seeing around the area overnight and 
early this morning should finally being to improve by 14 or 
14z...at which time MVFR ceilings should prevail at the taf sites. The 
clouds should be widely scattered by between 15 and 17z with 
mostly middle and high level clouds drifting across the sky. Another 
round of rain and wintry precipitation will be possible toward the end of 
the taf period...from roughly 8z Onward. 


&& 


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...Arkansas 
short term...Arkansas 
long term...shallenberger 
aviation...Arkansas 






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