Monticello, Kentucky Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 75°
  • Drizzle
  • Wind: East 5 mph
  • Humidity: 83%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 70°
  • Pressure: 30.09 in. +

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Next 12 Hours

11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
11  am
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Fog
Fog
Fog
Fog
Fog
Fog
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
75°
73°
72°
73°
79°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Wednesday
  • Thunderstorm
  • High: 88 °
  • Low: 70 °
  • T-Storms
  • Thursday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 77 °
  • Low: 59 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 81 °
  • Low: 57 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 90 °
  • Low: 70 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 82 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Chance of T-Storms

Forecast for Monticello, Kentucky

Updated: 11:00 PM EDT on July 22, 2014

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the morning, then overcast with thunderstorms. High of 88F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with thunderstorms, then a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Thursday

    Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 77F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 90F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 70F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 82F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 63F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 48F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 75F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 75F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 77F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 79F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Saturday

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 79F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Colonial Estates, Monticello, KY

Updated: 9:35 PM EDT

Temperature: 78.1 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 81 °F Graphs

Location: Balcony Bend, Jamestown, KY

Updated: 8:35 PM CDT

Temperature: 78.8 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Burnside, KY

Updated: 9:39 PM EDT

Temperature: 78.8 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 26.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: RAWS SOMERSET KY US, Ferguson, KY

Updated: 9:01 PM EDT

Temperature: 77 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: ENE at 3 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.10 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: RMR - Somerset, Ferguson, KY

Updated: 9:27 PM EDT

Temperature: 75.6 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: HALLS BACKYARD WEATHER, SCIENCE HILL, KY

Updated: 9:38 PM EDT

Temperature: 80.3 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 
817 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


Update... 
issued at 817 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


Convection is on the decline with the loss of heating. Will hang onto 
isolated showers and a rumble of thunder for another hour or two... 
before a lull is then expected into the overnight. As weaker 
southwest flow engages in th low levels towards dawn...there may be a 
small increase in convection once again...which the current forecast 
already has well in hand. Updates have been sent. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night) 
issued at 420 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


As of late afternoon...an upper level low is meandering along the 
Gulf Coast while the eastern extent of an upper level ridge centered 
near The Four Corners region extends into the lower Ohio Valley region. 
A shortwave is rotating across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario 
with another upstream entering northwest Ontario. 


The shortwaves will combine to help form an eastern Continental U.S. Trough 
through the period while the ridge amplifies across The Rockies. A 
surface low associated with the developing trough will track from just 
north of the northern Great Lakes and into the Maritimes through Wednesday 
night with the developing trough and northwest flow pushing the 
trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley late tonight into the day on 
Wednesday. This front will gradually cross the region late on Wednesday afternoon 
into Wednesday evening. 


In the meantime...isolated showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm 
will remain possible mainly until near sunset and daytime heating is 
lost. There will be some minor height falls overnight and with a 
moist air mass in place...a stray shower cannot be ruled out 
overnight...but this would be few and far between otherwise...the 
consecutively driven cumulus should dissipate overnight and patchy River 
Valley fog is again anticipated. 


More organized convection is anticipated as the front approaches and 
crosses the region and the upper level trough develops over the 
eastern Continental U.S.. this front and upper level forcing from the developing 
trough will interact with a moist prefontal air mass to bring more 
organized convection to the region from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. 
Morning heating will be Delaware pendant on how much cloud cover there is in 
the am and this will ultimately determine instability. Moderate 
instability is anticipated with temperatures in the middle 80s to around 90 and 
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70. The low level gradient will 
be rather weak and so will the winds while the upper level winds will 
not be all that strong so shear will be weak. Precipitable waters  is prognosticated to climb 
1.5 to 1.8 inch range from midday Wednesday into Wednesday night...so storms 
should be able to produce locally heavy rain. A stronger storm or two 
might also be able to produce strong wind gusts. Once the front 
crosses the region...instability will diminish and the threat for 
thunder should also diminish late Wednesday night. 


Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the period...but a 
colder and drier air mass will already be starting to advect into the 
area late in the period. 


Long term...(wednesday night through monday) 
issued at 348 am EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


The models are in only fair agreement aloft through the extended 
portion of the forecast. While they all depict the abnormal pattern 
of a strong Four Corners Region Ridge and deep troughing in the east 
continuing through the end of the week and into the start of the 
next week...they differ on the magnitude and timing of the evolving 
eastern trough...particularly over the weekend and into Monday. 
Specifically...falling heights over Kentucky will be the rule into 
Thursday night as the retrograding low to the south pulls away and 
the northern stream sends a series of shortwaves through the area in 
northwest flow. This eastern trough pulls away to start the weekend 
with heights climbing temporarily before they fall again in the face 
of a Node of the large northeast trough gearing up for a dive into 
the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. The 00z GFS is most aggressive 
with this evolution while the 12 European model (ecmwf) keeps its core wave further 
to the northwest and lags the GFS development. However...the latest 
CMC and European model (ecmwf) are trending more toward the GFS. Regardless... 
northwest flow will dominate the local pattern as heights fall into 
Monday morning. Eventually...the European model (ecmwf) catches up...with the deeper 
and more western trough idea of the GFS but some significant 
differences remain with the pattern over the Ohio Valley to close 
out the week. The better agreement earlier in the extended supports 
a blended solution while the larger spread later on lowers 
confidence so that the ensembles and a slight lean toward the GFS 
are preferred solutions. 


Sensible weather will feature an approaching cold front serving as a 
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night 
into Thursday. Cooler and drier air will filter into this part of 
the state later in the day Thursday putting an end to the convective 
chances from northwest to southeast. Dry and relatively cool weather 
follows into the start of the weekend thanks to a brief visit of 
high pressure. However...the cold front that brought the drier 
weather will start to surge north over the western parts of the 
region and bring warmth...moisture...and better convective chances 
back into the area on Saturday. A series of short waves at middle 
levels...the developing trough...and the surface frontal structure over 
the Ohio Valley keep shower and thunderstorm chances going into 
Sunday and Monday. 


The CR grid Load provided a decent start to the forecast for the 
extended...though did adjust the probability of precipitation to add a tinge of diurnal to 
the timing of the convection. Also...tweaked the low temperature 
grids a tad to reflect ridge and valley differences Wednesday and 
Thursday night. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 817 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


A rogue shower will affect sme from the east through 0030z before 
dissipating...otherwise convection will be on the wane through the 
overnight with IFR to MVFR fog once again to contend with between 06 
and 12z. Expect that the deeper valleys will see the LIFR or worse 
conditions...with better conditions in the broader valleys and 
ridgetops. Sme could be in for IFR or worse fog depending on the 
rainfall amounts that occur there. Isolated convection will threaten 
once again by around 12z...with better chances occurring in the 
afternoon with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Light 
south to southwest winds will shift to the west and northwest 
Wednesday afternoon. 


&& 


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...geogerian 
short term...jp 
long term...greif 
aviation...geogerian 














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