Monticello, Kentucky Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 46°
  • Light Rain
  • Wind: South 8 mph
  • Humidity: 100%
  • Visibility: 7.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 46°
  • Pressure: 29.67 in. -
  • Heat Index: 42

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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Sunday
  • Rain
  • High: 50 °
  • Low: 28 °
  • Rain
  • Monday
  • Chance of Snow
  • High: 32 °
  • Low: 16 °
  • Chance of Snow
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 41 °
  • Low: 27 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 34 °
  • Low: 18 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Monticello, Kentucky

Updated: 4:00 PM EST on February 01, 2015

  • Sunday

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 50F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.

  • Sunday Night

    Overcast with snow showers, then snow after midnight. Low of 28F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the West after midnight. Chance of snow 90%.

  • Monday

    Overcast with a chance of snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 32F with a windchill as low as 18F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 16F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 41F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 27F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 54F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and rain showers after midnight. Low of 30F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the North after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50% .

  • Thursday

    Overcast. High of 34F with a windchill as low as 19F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 18F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 21F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 41F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 45F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Monday

    Clear with a chance of rain. High of 43F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 39F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 46F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Special Statement  Statement as of 4:45 PM EST on February 1, 2015

... A deepening area of low pressure will bring breezy conditions and
light snow to parts of eastern Kentucky late tonight into early
Monday morning...

A strong low pressure system will cut across the southern Ohio
Valley tonight and into the day Monday. Lingering precipitation...
following soaking rains... will change over to snow from west to east
around dawn Monday. The snow could come down briefly moderate for a
time before tapering off from west to east during the late morning
hours. Most accumulations will be limited to a dusting... but the
ridges could pick up as much as a half an inch. Deeper into eastern
Kentucky the snow will linger longer and amounts are expected to be a
bit higher. Fore these locations... winter weather advisories for snow
and blowing snow are in effect for Monday morning and into the
afternoon. Brisk winds will accompany the snow helping to lower
visibilities for a time early Monday morning. In addition... the
arrival of the colder air towards dawn Monday will result in a
potential for slick spots on area roads... especially on overpasses
and bridges. Motorists are urged to use caution when traveling Monday


Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: APRSWXNET Jamestown KY US, Jamestown, KY

Updated: 5:34 PM CST

Temperature: 50 °F Dew Point: 49 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: South at 2 mph Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Balcony Bend, Jamestown, KY

Updated: 6:09 PM CST

Temperature: 50.2 °F Dew Point: 49 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: South at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.10 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: KYTC_RWIS US-27 @ KY-90 (Burnside), Bronston, KY

Updated: 5:25 PM EST

Temperature: 48 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: SSE at 16 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 42 °F Graphs

Location: RAWS SOMERSET KY US, Ferguson, KY

Updated: 6:01 PM EST

Temperature: 48 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: SE at 9 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: South Fork Furniture, Liberty, KY

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 50.3 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: South at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.64 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Liberty KY US, Windsor, KY

Updated: 6:34 PM EST

Temperature: 49 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: SSE at 4 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Somerset KY US, Acorn, KY

Updated: 6:29 PM EST

Temperature: 48 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: South at 6 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Woods Edge Drive, Somerset, KY

Updated: 7:11 PM EST

Temperature: 48.0 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Waste Water Treatment Plant, Science Hill, KY

Updated: 7:05 PM EST

Temperature: 48.2 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SSE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs


Updated: 7:12 PM EST

Temperature: 48.2 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: ENE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 
411 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 

Short term...(this evening through Monday night) 
issued at 335 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 

19z surface analysis shows a rather deep area of low pressure moving 
across the Mississippi River into Illinois. A cold front from this is 
stretched to the southwest down into Texas. As this low pushes 
further into the Ohio Valley...the core of its precipitation shield is now 
entering eastern Kentucky with light to moderate rains overspreading 
the area. Under thick clouds and the arriving rains...temperatures 
have peaked this afternoon with readings in the middle 40s to lower 50s 
across the area. Dewpoints...meanwhile...are coming up with the 
arriving rains and now vary from the low to middle 20s in the east and 
the upper 30s to lower 40s to the west. Wind have also picked up with 
the arrival of the rain with gusts to 20 to 25 kts from the south 
over the Cumberland Valley and 15 to 20 kts elsewhere. 

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term 
portion of the forecast as they whip a sharp trough through the 
southern Appalachians by midday Monday. In the northwest flow that 
follows...a trailing shortwave will pass through eastern Kentucky 
into early Tuesday morning...seen as strongest in the European model (ecmwf) when 
compared to the nam12 and GFS/Gem. Have mainly followed a model 
blend through Monday night with an emphasis on the higher resolution 
details from the nam12 before leaning more on the GFS and nam12 with 
the trailing wave through Tuesday morning. 

Sensible weather will feature a good soaking rain for east Kentucky 
through the evening and into the overnight along with breezy 
conditions as the wrapped up surface low moves through. The low passes to 
the east by sunrise Monday with winds switching to the west and 
increasing as the tight gradient on the low/S backside exits the 
area. In addition to the breezy conditions in the wake of the Arctic boundary will bring in much colder air from west to 
east across the County Warning Area between 08 and 13z resulting in a switch over for 
any lingering precipitation to snow. The winds will become more upslope while 
the surface low further deepens into Monday morning. This will add to the 
snow fall for our far eastern counties with the winds blowing the 
snow around keeping the visible low in any showers. Expect the snow to be 
worst between 11 and 15z for most of the area with light 
accumulations expected aside from the ridges and locations in the far 
east. Along those places near the Virginia border some higher snow 
totals will be possible with between 2 and 3 inches seen on the peaks 
above 2500 feet and up to 2 inches on the lower ridges while valleys 
generally pick up an inch or less. addition to the snow 
and winds...the cold air could move in quick enough...trailing the 
rains and limited dry slotting to result in icy conditions on area 
roads. For this reason...will have an Special Weather Statement or Winter Weather Advisory 
out for the entire area...hitting the east progressively harder for 
amounts and impacts. Our Virginia border counties will have an 
advisory for snow going until 23z while to the west the advisory will 
run through 19z with lesser totals. The snow tapers off from west to 
east Monday afternoon with cold air advection sending temperatures down into the teens most 
places by dawn Tuesday...though low clouds will likely keep readings 
from completely bottoming out for eastern parts of the area. 

Used the bcconsshort followed by the superblend as a starting point 
for temperatures...dewpoints...and winds through Tuesday morning. 
Made only minor adjustments to winds and temperatures to account for 
the terrain effects of the cold air advection winds late tonight into Monday 
morning. As for probability of precipitation...ended up on the high side of MOS guidance 
through Monday afternoon owing to the tendency for the model/MOS 
guidance to under do upslope snow situations. 

Long term...(tuesday through sunday) 
issued at 410 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 

Tuesday will start out with generally zonal flow aloft and surface 
high pressure in place. Temperatures will warm from the previous day 
with surface winds becoming more srly and skies clearing...though 
still expected to be a few degrees below seasonable normals. A 
shortwave will begin to traverse along a trough axis well north of 
the region...reaching the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday evening and 
strengthening as it shoots off to the southeast and across the eastern 
portion of Kentucky. This course of action...including the amplitude and very much a result of which model is correct. As of 
now...there is still quite a bit of disagreement between the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf)...which leads to low confidence on the resulting surface 
features. The GFS continues to be the strongest with the 
system...showing a 1009mb low pressure system moving across New 
England Wednesday evening. The European model (ecmwf) is in a similar location for 
the low...but is slightly weaker at 1013mb as of the 12z run. A cold 
front will extend southwest of this low...and bring frontal 
precipitation to much of the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening through 
Thursday morning for the GFS...and somewhat later Wednesday night 
through Thursday afternoon for the European model (ecmwf) and Gem. 

Regardless...this will be a quick hitting system...with much of the 
moisture falling along or just behind the frontal passage. If this 
holds true...winds will make a quick shift to the north and begin 
pulling in much colder air around the time the precipitation starts. 
This will quickly drop temperatures below expect any precipitation 
that falls to be mainly in the form of snow...with maybe a small 
amount of rain at the onset. Highs on Thursday are only expected to 
reach the upper 20s to around 30. Dry air will then quickly work in 
and cut off any remaining snow potential sometime Thursday 
afternoon. Do note...given the discrepancies between the 
models...the timing of onset and departure is likely to change. This 
will then likely affect the snow totals. At this time...forecasting 
generally a half inch or less across the County Warning Area...with the highest 
amounts in the southeast where snow will linger the longest and some 
upslope flow will take place. 

After this system passes through the region...upper levels will 
slowly transition back to zonal flow. Colder Canadian air flowing 
into the region will eventually give way to more seasonable norms by 
Saturday. High pressure will be in control through much of the 
remainder of the extended. Our next threat for precipitation will occur 
sometime Saturday night/Sunday on day 7 of the forecast as models 
hint at another shortwave developing over the Central Plains. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) 
issued at 115 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 

VFR conditions will persist through most of the afternoon. However... 
the ceilings will begin to drop as moderate rainfall begins to move into 
the area along with a lowering of the visibility. In general...IFR 
and below conditions can be anticipated through the area after 00z 
with the moderate rains moving through. The rain will then change to 
snow as the colder air moves in with reduced visibility and lower 
visible being the main AVN concern. Winds will be increasing through the 
afternoon and evening from the south to southwest. These will start 
shifting to the southwest and later tonight and then to the west 
predawn. Gusty winds will blow as high as 25 kts through the night 
and into the day Monday as the system moves on through. These 
winds...combined with snowfall will keep the visible rather low through 
middle morning in most places. Look for conditions to start improving 
by midday from west to east. 


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM EST Monday for kyz088- 

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 am to 2 PM EST Monday for kyz086- 



Short term...greif 
long term...jmw 

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