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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 69 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Mostly Cloudy

area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
700 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013 


..updated aviation discussion... 


Short term (now - Saturday night)... 
issued at 327 PM EDT Fri may 24 2013 


..very patchy frost possible in eastern valleys tonight... 


Surface high pressure centered over Lake Michigan has established 
control across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will 
hold between eastern Continental U.S. Trough and central Continental U.S. Ridge. The main 
concern for tonight will be how low temperatures get under good 
radiational cooling conditions. Current dewpoints are generally in 
the low to mid 40s, however upper 30s dew points lurk just to the 
north. Expect dew points to drop some more over the next few hours 
as a light advective component from the north and mixing contribute 
to overall drier air. This will set the stage for tonight as clear 
skies and calm winds allow temperatures to drop. Most locations 
should stay in the low to mid 40s, however a few of the coolest 
eastern valleys may drop into the upper 30s. There is some concern 
for a few patches of frost in the most sheltered valleys and cool 
spots. Most spots will not see frost, so will not continue the 
Special Weather Statement. Also may see some patchy fog in river 
valleys toward dawn. 


Will keep the forecast dry on Saturday, however will see an increase 
in upper level clouds. Will see temperatures recover to the mid 70s 
across southwestern portions of the County Warning Area under warmer 850 mb temps and 
less cloud cover, however eastern and central portions of the County Warning Area 
will stay in the 65 to 70 degree range. There will be deep enough 
moisture aloft for some virga to fall out, however think it will be 
too dry in the lowest levels for any precipitation to hit the 
ground. 


Will continue to mention small chances for a measurable rain shower 
as we get into Saturday night as deeper moisture from upstream 
continues to move into the area. There is some model support for 
upstream mesoscale convective system to dive across our area, which is fitting in this 
northwest flow pattern. However, not confident enough in this 
scenario at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Lows on 
Saturday night will be milder, generally in the upper 40s and lower 
50s. 


Long term (sunday through friday)... 
issued at 250 PM EDT Fri may 24 2013 


We will begin this period with a warm front oriented northwest to 
southeast across the region, flow aloft also from the northwest, and 
some weak hard to time vortmaxes coming down in that flow. Despite 
the timing, several models are bringing in qpf, with the 4km NAM the 
most robust having an mesoscale convective system come through the region during the day. We 
look to have continued chances for showers/storms through at least 
Monday, when that warm front will lift north and pull the best 
chances away from the region. The temperature forecast through 
Monday will depend on timing of these waves, but in general went 
with 70s for Sunday and around 80 Monday. 


From Tuesday on, a ridge will build aloft, with it becoming centered 
over US by Thursday. The result will mean below normal rain chances 
and above normal temps. Readings will bump up to the mid 80s Tuesday 
but could approach 90 Wednesday through Friday. 


&& 


Aviation (00z taf issuance)... 
issued at 700 PM EDT Fri may 24 2013 


VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. After a clear 
and calm night, mid and high level clouds will begin to move in by 
the late morning hours on Saturday into Saturday afternoon. These 
clouds look as if they'll be expansive enough to create a broken to overcast 
deck near fl120 across klex and ksdf. Some guidance continues to 
hint at even some light rain reaching the surface with this cloud 
cover, but with very dry air beneath the cloud-bearing layer, think 
much of the precipitation will fall as virga. Thus, will continue 
to leave any precipitation out of the forecast at this time. Winds 
through the day on Saturday will be generally light out of the 
east. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
$$ 




Short term.......bjs 
long term........rjs 
aviation.........Kd