Updated: 10:03 am EDT on October 9, 2015
Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the morning...then widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening...then scattered showers late. Lows in the lower 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Light winds.
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Light winds.
Sunny. Highs around 70. Light winds.
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
Sunny with isolated showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Sunny. Highs around 70.
Mostly clear. Lows around 50.
Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
... Fire weather/fire prevention awareness week continues today with
a look at the Spring and fall fire weather seasons...
As mentioned earlier in the week... low relative humidities and high
wind speeds are two key ingredients which act to increase the degree
of fire danger. These two ingredients... combined with drier
vegetation... are most prevalent during the Spring and fall fire
The Spring fire weather season occurs in the late winter and early
Spring. It begins on February 15th and last until April 30th. In
February and March... most of the vegetation is still dormant as
temperatures begin to warm. Lengthening daylight hours and warmer
temperatures increase the surface temperatures and in combination
with higher wind speeds... dry out the vegetation. With these
ingredients in place... elevated levels of fire danger typically
occur until the Forest foliate is at full growth and providing
shade. The cooling effect of the shade on Leaf litter and understory
and the high moisture content of growing vegetation brings and end
to the Spring fire season. Spring is when the majority of wildfires
occur. However... the largest wildfire in Kentucky since 2000
occurred in the fall of 2001 in Floyd County.
The fall fire weather season runs from October 1st through December
15th. Normally for Kentucky... the month of September and
October... are on average the two driest months of the year. This
makes September and October combined the driest two month period
during the year on average. During this time of year... temperatures
are also cooler on average. These cooler temperatures held reduce
the threat of stronger afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms... which are usually driven by warmer surface
temperatures. Also... the jet stream... where the better organized
weather systems with more widespread rainfall... if typically located
well north of Kentucky during September and October.
Typically... in the month of September... the vegetation becomes drier
out. By October... the combination of drier vegetation... falling
leaves that dry out and the end of the growing season sometimes
leads to an extended period of higher fire danger.
Climatological records for Jackson and London indicate that the
driest months on record generally occur in September and October.
The normal rainfall at Jackson for September is 3.46 inches... while
the normal rainfall for October is 3.19 inches. At London... the
normal rainfall for September is 3.37 inches and 3.02 inches for
October. Since 1981 at Jackson... eight septembers and nine octobers
have had rainfall of less than two inches. Since 1955 at London...
fifteen septembers and seventeen octobers have had rainfall of less
than two inches. In fact... at Jackson... the driest two month
September and October period on record occurred in 2005... when only
2.08 inches fell. The driest two month September and October period
at London occurred in 2008... when only 1.30 inches of rain fell. At
Jackson... the second driest September and October period was in 2008
when only 2.14 inches fell... while the third driest September and
October period occurred in 2001... when only 2.50 inches of rain
fell. London was wetter during September and October 2001...
receiving 3.72 inches of rain. Fall 2001 was one of the most active
fall fire weather seasons on record in eastern Kentucky.
Although we have discussed the seasonal impacts of weather on
wildfires... keep in mind that wildfires can occur at any time of the
year in Kentucky. Always strive to say educated about wildfire
prevention. But most importantly... be careful and act responsibly!
For additional fire weather information... please go to the following
website: www.Crh.NOAA.Gov/jkl/fire (all lower case).
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: MSWO, London, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 79.0 °F||Dew Point: 55 °F||Humidity: 43%||Wind: SW at 10.1 mph||Pressure: 30.06 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 79 °F||Graphs|
Location: Tattersall, Corbin, KY
Updated: 1:33 PM EDT
|Temperature: 79.3 °F||Dew Point: 65 °F||Humidity: 62%||Wind: North at 2.7 mph||Pressure: 29.90 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Heat Index: 81 °F||Graphs|
Location: South Corbin, Corbin, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 78.1 °F||Dew Point: 65 °F||Humidity: 64%||Wind: NNW at 2.9 mph||Pressure: 29.98 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 80 °F||Graphs|
Location: APRSWXNET, Fall Rock, KY
Updated: 1:18 PM EDT
|Temperature: 75 °F||Dew Point: 71 °F||Humidity: 87%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.98 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 75 °F||Graphs|
Location: Denny Subdivision, Mount Vernon, KY
Updated: 1:35 PM EDT
|Temperature: 76.8 °F||Dew Point: 65 °F||Humidity: 67%||Wind: WSW at 17.0 mph||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 79 °F||Graphs|
Location: Southern McKee, McKee, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 78.4 °F||Dew Point: 66 °F||Humidity: 65%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 80 °F||Graphs|
Location: Maretburg, Mount Vernon, KY
Updated: 1:34 PM EDT
|Temperature: 81.0 °F||Dew Point: 65 °F||Humidity: 59%||Wind: SSW at 5.3 mph||Pressure: 29.75 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Heat Index: 83 °F||Graphs|
Location: crawford rd, Manchester, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 77.9 °F||Dew Point: 61 °F||Humidity: 55%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.02 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 79 °F||Graphs|
Location: Mackey Bend, Barbourville, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 81.5 °F||Dew Point: 67 °F||Humidity: 61%||Wind: WSW at 5.8 mph||Pressure: 30.06 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 84 °F||Graphs|
Location: Downtown McKee, McKee, KY
Updated: 1:27 PM EDT
|Temperature: 79.3 °F||Dew Point: 66 °F||Humidity: 63%||Wind: SSW at 3.7 mph||Pressure: 29.89 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Heat Index: 81 °F||Graphs|
Location: Green Fish Hill, Mount Vernon, KY
Updated: 1:36 PM EDT
|Temperature: 77.4 °F||Dew Point: 76 °F||Humidity: 94%||Wind: SW at 4.5 mph||Pressure: 29.88 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 79 °F||Graphs|
Location: liford's, Barbourville, KY
Updated: 1:31 PM EDT
|Temperature: 81.7 °F||Dew Point: 62 °F||Humidity: 52%||Wind: North at 3.2 mph||Pressure: 29.89 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Heat Index: 83 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 1003 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 Update... issued at 1003 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 WSR-88D radar is showing some isolated showers and perhaps a isolated storm mainly moving through Bath...Fleming...and Rowan counties this morning. Grids look fairly on track at this point. Did make a quick update to ingest the latest observation and trends. Otherwise just some minor tweaks overall. Update issued at 745 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 Did an update to fine tune the T and dew point grids per the latest observation and trends. Also tweaked the weather and pop ones based on the current radar images and hrrr forecasts. These have been sent to the ndfd and web servers. && Short term...(today through saturday) issued at 315 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 06z surface analysis shows a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes on its trek east. A cold front trails southwest from this low and is responsible for a broken line of showers moving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Closer to home...a smattering of showers are just starting to pop up over eastern Kentucky... well ahead of the cold front. The showers are taking shape in conjunction with increasing and lowering cloud cover. They are feeding on relatively elevated dewpoints in place throughout the County Warning Area. Look for these clouds and roving showers to help stir the air and mitigate our current ridge to valley temperature split. The most sheltered eastern valleys have fallen into the middle 50s while ridges are generally in the middle 60s. Winds have been light...generally from the southwest. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as they take a deepening trough into the southeast portion of the country to end the work week and start the weekend. The latest European model (ecmwf) and nam12 are on the stronger side of the clustering with the core of this wave but still reasonable. This trough and its energy dive toward the southeast Atlantic coast on Saturday with heights rebounding by evening for eastern Kentucky. Given the model agreement have favored the higher resolution hrrr and nam12 for details with this frontal passage event. Sensible weather will feature showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm around into the morning across east Kentucky from the pre-frontal activity. The front will move into the eastern part of the state by midday with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms a good bet. Given the marginal instability... limited by the morning clouds and showers despite decent dewpoints for this time of year...some wind shear aloft...and upper level support...the strongest storms will be capable of gusty winds... in addition to brief heavy rains. The instability wanes during the evening with thunder moving off to the east along the front. Post frontal low clouds and scattered showers will continue into early Saturday morning before ending from northwest to southeast. A cooler air mass will move in for Saturday and despite some sunshine returning in the afternoon...temperatures will be noticeably cooler...on the order of 10 to 15 degrees for highs compared to Thursday and today. Used the shortblend guidance as a starting point for the T and dew point grids into the evening before going with the superblend through Saturday. Did make some fine tuned adjustments for this morning/S low temperatures and again tonight. As for probability of precipitation...ended up similar to consensus MOS guidance through Saturday morning. Long term...(saturday night through thursday) issued at 300 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 The period will being with a trough low pressure exiting the region and moving across the southeastern Continental U.S.. a ridge of high pressure is then expected to settle over the region behind the departed trough by late Sunday morning. The weather pattern to begin the week will feature at or slightly below temperatures across eastern Kentucky. Highs each day will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overnight lows are expected to be quite cold...with readings bottoming out in the middle to upper 40s Saturday night...and around 50 from Saturday night Onward. The only chance for precipitation in the extended looks to be for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Based on the latest model data...this bout of rain would be triggered by slow and weakening eastward moving cold front. Once this system exits the area...we should see otherwise dry and pleasant weather through the end of the week. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) issued at 755 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015 Just a few isolated showers out there currently...not affecting any taf sites. After 15z...MVFR ceilings will be possible across all sites as the clouds lower and showers more effectively develop. By midday...more substantial showers and a few thunderstorms will begin moving into the area just ahead of an approaching cold front. The rain may be briefly heavy...with gusty winds possible from any storm. In a thunderstorm...conditions would likely fall to IFR or below for a short time. Look for ceilings to fall later tonight Post frontal with IFR and LIFR conditions possible along with MVFR fog. Winds will be generally 5 to 10 kts out of the south/southwest through midday before switching to west/northwest at similar speeds Post frontal passage...settling to near calm after 06z tonight. && Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...dj short term...greif long term...Arkansas aviation...greif