Updated: 5:17 AM EDT on January 18, 2015
Sun and clouds mixed. High 81F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mainly cloudy. Low 62F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe. High 72F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms later on. Low 61F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thunderstorms. High near 70F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Isolated thunderstorms during the evening hours. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight. Low 49F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High around 65F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.
A few clouds from time to time. Low around 45F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph.
Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 68F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low 48F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunshine. High 66F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear skies. Low 44F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 67F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Showers early becoming a steady light rain late. Low 48F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Steady light rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High around 65F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Chance of a shower or two during the evening, followed by partly cloudy skies late. Low around 45F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunny along with a few clouds. High 64F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low 44F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny skies. High around 65F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low 49F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 66F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Cloudy with occasional showers. Low 49F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
622 am EDT Sat Apr 18 2015
... Areas of dense fog early this morning...
Areas of dense fog have developed across the region. The fog is
most prevalent near the larger creeks... rivers and lakes. The fog
in these areas is reducing visibilities to one quarter of a mile
or less. However... the fog will begin to lift after sunrise... and
should dissipate by 9 am EDT.
If traveling early this morning... be alert for sudden changes in
visibilities. Slow down... use low beam headlights... leave plenty
of room between your vehicle and the one in front of you... and
allow extra time to reach your destination.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Napier Mountain, London, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 57.9 °F||Dew Point: 58 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: ENE at 2.2 mph||Pressure: 29.72 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: MSWO, London, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 50.5 °F||Dew Point: 50 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.94 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: South Corbin, Corbin, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 48.7 °F||Dew Point: 49 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.01 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 49 °F||Graphs|
Location: Denny Subdivision, Mount Vernon, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 56.1 °F||Dew Point: 56 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.04 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Southern McKee, McKee, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 45.1 °F||Dew Point: 43 °F||Humidity: 91%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.04 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
Location: Manchester, Manchester, KY
Updated: 6:30 AM EDT
|Temperature: 53.1 °F||Dew Point: -||Humidity: -||Wind: North at -||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Maretburg, Mount Vernon, KY
Updated: 7:08 AM EDT
|Temperature: 52.0 °F||Dew Point: 52 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.78 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Mackey Bend, Barbourville, KY
Updated: 7:33 AM EDT
|Temperature: 53.8 °F||Dew Point: 52 °F||Humidity: 92%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.05 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Woods Edge Drive, Somerset, KY
Updated: 7:30 AM EDT
|Temperature: 54.5 °F||Dew Point: 51 °F||Humidity: 89%||Wind: North at -||Pressure: 30.11 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Downtown McKee, McKee, KY
Updated: 7:10 AM EDT
|Temperature: 46.8 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.84 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 47 °F||Graphs|
Location: liford's, Barbourville, KY
Updated: 7:13 AM EDT
|Temperature: 54.9 °F||Dew Point: 55 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.89 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: -||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 349 am EDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Short term...(today through sunday) issued at 345 am EDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Shortwave upper level ridging and ridging extending down to near the surface was the dominant feature across the lower Ohio Valley and into the central appalachian region. With mainly just cirrus overhead...temperatures in the valley locations have dropped off well into the 50s. Valley fog has begun to develop...across the Cumberland Valley per sme and ekq observation. In other locations...relative humidity from Kentucky mesonet sites and the slowing rate of temperature drop as well as iob Observation Point toward valley fog elsewhere as well. This valley fog should continue to develop over the next couple of hours. Upstream of the region a closed low continued to spin over the southern Colorado/norther northwest region with moisture streaming north across much of the Southern Plains into the Central Plains region...especially from East Texas north into Kansas and MO. Through the short term period...the closed low is expected to move east into the Central Plains and approach the middle MS valley region. As it does so...it will begin to merge with a northern stream system dropping southeast. This northern stream system will be nearing northwest Ontario by the end of the period. Weak shortwaves in the south to southwest flow aloft should move across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region from tonight through the end of the period. The most significant one however...will rotate into the region later tonight and into the day on Sunday. At the same time...somewhat complex and baggy surface low pressure is expected to develop over the lower MS valley region by this evening and then track nearly due north to near the confluence of the Ohio and MS rivers by dawn on Sunday. The surface low should then track norther north to just south or southeast of Lake Michigan by the end of the period. As the low tracks north it will send a warm front north into eastern Kentucky on Sunday. Late in the period...the SW corner of the County Warning Area may be in the warm sector between the warm front and a cold front nearing the MS valley. This system will transport decent moisture north into the region and with some middle level support as well as isentropic lift...measurable rain is anticipated area wide... especially on Sunday. Thunderstorms area also possible... especially from late tonight and into the day on Sunday. If destabilization can occur...especially across the south or southwest...a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. As for the near term...the valley fog should lift and dissipate by about 14z...or 10 am. Then sunshine through some high clouds is anticipated. Temperatures should warm well into the 70s and reach or exceed 80 in several locations. Moisture may increase just enough near the Tennessee border east to right along the Virginia border where models indicate a subtle convergence zone for a stray shower or two late this afternoon or evening. The consensus of the short term and higher resolution models such as the NAM...hrrr and the rap point toward this potential. However...the bulk of the showers should hold off until after dark...and in fact after midnight or later in most locations. Instability may increase enough for a few embedded rumbles of thunder across the southwest overnight. The pressure gradient will also be increasing as the night progresses and into the day on Sunday. This should lead to the higher elevation exposed locations such as the top of Black Mountain and The Flatwoods area of Pike County picking up sustained winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour after midnight on Sunday toward dawn. Some gusts there in the 30 to 40 miles per hour range are certainly possible. The southeast flow pattern will need to be watched for possible mountain wave gusts into Harlan and Letcher counties just downwind of black and Pine Mountains. The forecast soundings from the NAM seem to show mixing for several thousand feet above the top of the Black Mountain and High Knob region while the GFS soundings have the top of the inversion near 850 mb...so this leads to uncertainty in any possible mountain wave development late on Sat night near the Virginia border. Otherwise...a band of showers in advance of the warm front should lift northeast...with the bulk of the southwest part of the County Warning Area standing the best chance for measurable rain before dawn on Sunday. The remainder of the area should receive showers and some embedded thunder from Sunday morning through middle afternoon on Sunday. As already mentioned...some redevelopment would be possible mainly across the southwest late in the day. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in that area with strong wind gusts and possibly marginally severe hail. Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this region for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with probabilities much higher from the middle MS valley south to the Gulf Coast region. Long term...(sunday night through friday) issued at 315 am EDT Sat Apr 18 2015 First round of showers and thunderstorms will be moving east of the region to start the period. A lull in the precipitation will be possible overnight Sunday as another low pressure develops across the Midwest. This will be primarily due to another spoke of energy rounding the base of a northern stream upper level closed low. This will swing a cold front across the region Monday with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. The model soundings are meager with the quantitative precipitation forecast and moisture is shallow with precipitable waters around at or above 0.80 during the day on Monday. Therefore keep quantitative precipitation forecast around a quarter of a inch in the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with the setup and progression of this system this front will usher in cooler and drier air as we move into the early part of next week. High temperatures will top out in the lower 60s by Tuesday and lows in the lower 40s at times. Models are a bit more divergent as we move into the longer range portion of the forecast. The GFS wants to bring a weak wave across the region as we move into early Wednesday...while the European model (ecmwf) and Gem are a bit drier. There seems to also be a weaker front during this period as well...however given that the quantitative precipitation forecast is quite low will lean toward the slight probability of precipitation given in the blend. These probability of precipitation persist into Thursday at this point and this seems reasonable given the uncertainty associated with the guidance in this period. Then we turn our eyes to a more substantial system as we move into Friday time frame. This is associated with a shortwave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest Friday. Diffluence aloft will aid in spreading overrunning precipitation east into the region late Friday. The GFS is the most progressive...but both models the GFS and European model (ecmwf) at least have the general setup as we move into late next week. This developing system is also corroborated by the 00z GFS ensemble mean...with decent continuity between the operational run. Right now will keep probability of precipitation in the slight to chance range on Friday as most the better dynamics come into play as we move into Friday night and Saturday which are beyond the scope of this forecast period. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) issued at 115 am EDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Mostly clear skies prevail at this time...as a few middle level clouds are skirting the Tennessee and Virginia border area with just some passing cirrus elsewhere. A few valley locations are experiencing visible nearing MVFR such as sme and ekq. This setup should be favorable for some mainly valley fog development...with the valley fog possibly lifting to Ridgetop locations such as jkl and sjs as the inversion deepens. MVFR to IFR visible is expected at all the taf sites based on crossover temperatures in the lower 50s. 4z lamp guidance also supports these ranges. By 13z to no later than 14z...daytime heating will allow fog to mix and scatter out even at River Valley non taf sites. Mainly upper level clouds will begin to thicken and lower generally 18z and after ahead of the next system...though ceilings and visible in all areas should remain VFR through the end of the period. Winds should be generally light and remain under 10kt through period. && Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Short term...jp long term...dj aviation...jp