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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 43 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
659 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 300 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Upper trough across the lower Great Lakes will move southeast across 
the Appalachians on Friday as cool Canadian high pressure settles 
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in clearing 
tonight with below temperatures through the Memorial Day weekend. 
Shower chances will return by Saturday. Temperatures will return to 
near normal Memorial Day and above normal by midweek next week. 
Thunderstorm chances will also return next week as Gulf moisture 
spreads north across the Ohio Valley. 


&& 


Near term /tonight/... 
issued at 300 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Main challenges tonight will be timing of end of showers...clearing 
and finally temperatures as an upper low drops southeast across the 
lower Great Lakes and cool Canadian high surface builds in behind a 
cold front. 


Models in good agreement on dropping an upper trough...across the 
western Great Lakes this afternoon...to Lake Erie by Friday morning. 
In addition...cool Canadian high pressure will build in behind a 
cold front that was presently near an ind-huf line. This will allow 
clearing from northwest to southeast as well as an end to the 
showers. The showers should only hang around until dark across our 
eastern counties...so pulled slight chance shower probability of precipitation after 02z. 
Leaned toward the colder 12z NAM MOS which was bringing overnight 
lows in the upper 30s across our northwest overnight and 40s 
elsewhere. Northwest winds will drop to below 10 knots at dark as 
well. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 
issued at 300 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Main focus to the short term will be on probability of precipitation for the Memorial Day 
weekend with so many outdoor activities on tap. 


Models in good agreement on cool Canadian high pressure...keeping 
temperatures below normal through the weekend as upper ridge camps 
out across the plains. Model time sections suggest clear skies 
Friday and Friday night with a dry column and high pressure in 
place. However...models in agreement on bringing quantitative precipitation forecast to all or parts 
of central Indiana Saturday through Sunday as upper waves top the 
Central Ridge and drop southeast across central Indiana. In 
addition...305k isentropic lift will be place with increasing 
moisture. Thus...will add small probability of precipitation Saturday and Saturday night 
across all but northeastern parts of the forecast area and raise 
probability of precipitation slightly on Sunday with generally chance probability of precipitation west of 
interstates 69 and 65 and slight chance probability of precipitation East. Gulf moisture 
does not start increasing until early next week...and model time 
sections also reveal dry air below 850 millibars. So...am 
comfortable with the lower allblend probability of precipitation. Would not rule out thunder 
Sunday...but best instability will be west of central Indiana. 


Allblend temperatures resemble the close MOS and look reasonable 
with the cool Canadian air poised to hang around. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
issued at 152 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Models are similar enough for the most part that the all blend 
initialization was used for most items. 


A warm front will remain in the neighborhood early in the 
extended...which will allow some showers and thunderstorms to 
develop. Location of front and timing of its moving northeast 
remains somewhat uncertain...so reluctantly kept low probability of precipitation in Sunday 
night into Wednesday /even though it likely will not rain each 
period/. Ridging will then build in for the end of the period. 


Temperatures will warm through the period as the front lifts 
northeast and upper ridging builds in. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 240000z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 659 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


MVFR ceilings to persist through the evening...otherwise VFR 
conditions anticipated. 


Broad area of MVFR stratocu remains across the entire forecast 
area early this evening in the wake of the cold frontal passage 
earlier today. Model soundings showing a fairly Stout inversion 
initially this evening that gives way only slowly. This combined 
with north/NE low level flow should enable low clouds to continue to 
funnel into the region from the lower Michigan over the next 3-6 
hours. Beyond that however...the arrival of drier air associated 
with strong Canadian high pressure will allow for skies to 
gradually clear at all terminals by daybreak or shortly 
thereafter. North/northwest winds will gust to around 20kts through the 
evening...diminishing to 10kts or less overnight as the high 
spreads in. 


The high will expand across the Ohio Valley with quiet weather for 
Friday. Presence of the departing low level thermal trough into 
the afternoon may be just enough to generate a few cumulus at kind. 
Otherwise...anticipate clear skies and northerly winds to near 
10kts all day. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...mk 
near term...mk 
short term...mk 
long term....50 
aviation...Ryan 


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