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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
644 am EDT Friday may 24 2013 


..updated aviation discussion... 


Forecast update... 
issued at 640 am EDT Fri may 24 2013 


Current forecast continues to be on track. Drier air is starting to 
win out as low-level cloud deck is start to erode nicely across 
southern Indiana. Expect partly cloudy skies to give way sunny 
skies as we head through the rest of the morning hours. 
Temperatures should continue to fall over the next hour or so 
bottoming out in the mid-upper 40s in the far north with upper 40s 
to around 50 near the river...and in the lower 50s across southern 
Kentucky. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s still 
look on target. 


&& 


Short term (now - saturday)... 
issued at 325 am EDT Fri may 24 2013 


Surface cold front continues to plow on off to the southeast this 
morning. Rain showers have long ended across southern Indiana and 
central Kentucky, but plenty of low clouds remain in place across 
the region. Drier air is trying to work in from the west, but a 
persistent north to northeasterly planetary boundary layer flow is allowing the low 
clouds to continue to flow southward this morning. In the near 
term, expect mostly cloudy conditions to remain in place, though our 
western sections will probably see a little more clearing due to the 
closer proximity to the drier air in place to our west. 
Temperatures will continue to fall with cold air advection 
place...and we expect readings to fall into the mid-upper 40s by 
sunrise. 


For today, high pressure will slowly build in from the northwest. 
Dry punch of air will continue to make headway into the Ohio Valley, 
so we should see a rapid decrease in clouds during the morning hours 
with mostly sunny skies expected today. Dewpoints will likely drop 
into the 30s this afternoon and with a good amount of mixing and 
cooler air aloft, we're likely to see a bit of a temperature 
gradient across the region. Afternoon highs will likely only top 
out in the 61-66 degree range across the Bluegrass region of central 
Kentucky with 65 to 70 degree readings in the I-65 corridor and 
points west. Surface winds will be out of the north to NE and will 
slacken later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. 


For tonight, high pressure and light winds will be in place which 
should set up a good radiational cooling period. The question 
remains whether we'll see the development of fog or a potential 
frost. From a climatological perspective, the threat of frost is 
fairly low here in KY/in. For the most part, it looks like 
temperatures will probably remain warm enough that we'll see mostly 
patchy fog develop. However, some of our eastern counties may get a 
touch of frost...especially in our typical cold spots. For this 
reason, we will issue a Special Weather Statement this morning 
highlighting the potential frost threat in the typical colder spots 
in the eastern Bluegrass region. Lows tonight will likely be in the 
upper 30s in the east with lower 40s in the central and western 
sections. 


Quiet and warmer conditions are expected for Saturday as high 
pressure moves on off to the east. This should kick our surface 
winds around to the south and eventually the southwest. 
Temperatures should moderate a bit on Saturday with highs in the 
65-70 degree range in the Bluegrass with 70 to 75 in the central and 
western sections of the forecast area. 


Long term (saturday night through thursday)... 
issued at 310 am EDT Fri may 24 2013 


A amplified yet slowly progressive 500mb pattern will feature deep 
troughs across New England and the Pacific northwest late Saturday. 
Eventually, ridging over the Western Plains will expand towards the 
lower Ohio Valley. This will enable temperatures to warm 
substantially beginning Monday. High temperatures may actually 
approach 90 towards the end of the next work week. 


Canadian high pressure ridge axis will lie right over the Great 
Lakes late Saturday, extending southward across the commonwealth. 
Cool weather with low dewpoints will continue through Sunday, along 
with light winds. Despite the possibility of some increasing high 
cloudiness associated with a warm front to our southwest, lows early 
Sunday will fall well down into the lower to mid 50s. 


Quite a bit of uncertainty and disagreement exists between some of 
the long range guidance for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. 
Overall, warmer more moist air will attempt to move northeast into 
the lower Ohio Valley. However, a deep slow moving low over New 
England and persistent northwest flow aloft over the commonwealth 
will retard the northeast progress of this boundary. It is likely 
during the first couple of days of next week that several convective 
clusters will develop across the Midwest, aided by moisture 
advection and the presence of a nocturnal low level jet. These 
periodic thunderstorms may slide southeast, bringing at least a 
chance of difficult-to-time thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon 
and possibly continuing through Tuesday. 


Both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS forecast the surface boundary to stretch 
early Sunday from northern Missouri southeast towards central 
Tennessee. The consistent European model (ecmwf) has been slower in bringing this 
boundary north across the commonwealth than the GFS. However, by 
Tuesday afternoon, both of these models have this boundary as far 
north as southern Ohio. Will continue our forecast of at least a 
chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with an 
admittedly low confidence on attempting to time any areas of 
convection moving southeastward along this boundary. 


Highs on Sunday will likely remain in the 70s, warming to the lower 
to mid 80s by Tuesday. For Wednesday and Thursday, mid-Summer like 
ridging will develop over the Tennessee Valley. Expect that these 
two days will stay dry with quite warm temperatures in the mid to 
upper 80s. 


&& 


Aviation (12z taf issuance)... 
issued at 640 am EDT Fri may 24 2013 


High pressure is forecast to build into the region today bringing 
VFR conditions to the terminals through much of the upcoming taf 
period. In the very near term, drier air continues to work into the 
region from the north and west. This is quickly eroding the high 
end MVFR deck of clouds at the terminals. Klex and ksdf will 
continue to scatter out over the next hour or two and VFR conditions 
are expected. Kbwg still has another hour or two of MVFR ceilings 
before scattering out and going VFR. Surface winds will remain out 
of the north and then gradually shift to the northeast. Winds will 
becoming light and variable this evening and continue overnight with 
clear skies. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
$$ 




Update...........mj 
short term.......mj 
long term........jsd 
aviation.........Mj