Updated: 9:00 PM CST on February 27, 2015
Mostly cloudy with snow showers. High of 39F with a windchill as low as 9F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 48F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Overcast with rain. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the West after midnight. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of snow and a chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 45F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Overcast. Low of 34F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 37F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.5 in. possible.
Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy. Low of 14F with a windchill as low as 5F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 36F with a windchill as low as 5F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of -4F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 25F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 52F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
... Snow reports for Louisville County Warning Area climate sites...
Location snowfall since total snow
midnight on ground
through 8 PM at 8 PM
Lexington (official) T 3
Louisville international (official) T 2
Louisville NWS office 0.1 1
Fort Knox T T
Bowling Green (official) 0 T
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Scout Reservation, Temple Hill, KY
Updated: 12:49 AM CST
|Temperature: 20.8 °F||Dew Point: 11 °F||Humidity: 65%||Wind: East at 1.7 mph||Pressure: 30.63 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 21 °F||Graphs|
Location: Cave City, KY
Updated: 12:50 AM CST
|Temperature: 20.8 °F||Dew Point: 10 °F||Humidity: 63%||Wind: ENE at 4.3 mph||Pressure: 30.04 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 15 °F||Graphs|
Location: Mammoth Cave NP, Rocky Hill, KY
Updated: 12:50 AM CST
|Temperature: 21.4 °F||Dew Point: -||Humidity: 53%||Wind: North at 3.1 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 17 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 12:12 AM CST
|Temperature: 21 °F||Dew Point: 6 °F||Humidity: 51%||Wind: ENE at 3 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 21 °F||Graphs|
Location: Rex KY in Hart County, Hardyville, KY
Updated: 12:50 AM CST
|Temperature: 19.8 °F||Dew Point: 8 °F||Humidity: 61%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.60 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 20 °F||Graphs|
Location: 31W, Munfordville, KY
Updated: 12:50 AM CST
|Temperature: 21.8 °F||Dew Point: 8 °F||Humidity: 54%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.51 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 22 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 12:50 AM CST
|Temperature: 23.2 °F||Dew Point: 4 °F||Humidity: 44%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.86 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 23 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 1155 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 ..updated aviation discussion... ..Forecast update... issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens south. Short term (now through Saturday night)... issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 ..unsettled period of weather coming... After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal! Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens. Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide. Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up. Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of NAM/GFS Max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and western Kentucky parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see discussion below. Long term (sunday through friday)... issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 ..period of active weather setting up for Ohio Valley... The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week. System 1: Sunday - Monday night As a weak area of low pressure moves from the Central Plains to southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all snow along the ind/lmk forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between 12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid across the entire area. The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces. Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of the Kentucky parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40 across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning. A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal. System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the East Coast, setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a surface low develops in the Lee side of The Rockies, deepening as it takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and pwats off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 South Dakota above normal and would be a record for bna sounding climatology. We'll also have surge of warmer air, bringing milder and Spring-like weather to the region. Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday, depending on the frontal passage timing. There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible T-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the Gem/European model (ecmwf) are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features. Nonetheless, there's good consensus that the upper levels will be characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper trough across the central Continental U.S.. while at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less than 100-200 j/kg, but The Tongue of higher instability wouldn't be too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more instability north. Generally, the high shear Low Cape environment looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio Valley. Cips analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the Tennessee border. Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the area including river basins. Thursday - Friday A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point. && Hydrology... Issued at 315 PM EST Friday Feb 27 2015 The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams. On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending on Thursday. The total amount of liquid precipitation is between one and three additional inches. This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect to begin to watch water levels next week. && Aviation (06z taf update)... issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. Lex and sdf look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down through the night. && Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... Kentucky...none. In...none. && $$ Update.........Bjs short term.....Rjs long term......zbt hydrology......CMC aviation.......eer