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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
427 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Short term...(today through Monday night) 
issued at 306 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Dense fog has developed under the cleared skies west of the 
Mississippi...and should expand to include nearby MS river 
counties in SW Illinois/far SW Kentucky. Depending upon the sky cover...it 
could further protrude eastward...but latest 11-3.9u imagery 
suggests the low clouds (patchy drizzle/mist) will more or less 
persist further east. Collaborated/issued dense fog advisory for 
western portions aforementioned. 


With the open waved low moving further northward/eastward up the 
Ohio Valley today...lingering high mrh particularly in our east 
will allow instability showers/storms to fire daytime today. Mean 
500 mb ridge will work into the region from the west in the wake 
of the low's departure...and should proclude most activity in the 
Sat night-Sun night time frame. However the models have been 
fairly consistently painting a ribbon of lingering higher 
mrh with light quantitative precipitation forecast on the Lee of the ridge...so we've maintained 
our going slight chance mention there for now. 


As the mean upper ridge moves east Monday...height falls to our 
west will help develop/east a low pressure system/associated cold 
front toward the forecast area later Monday into Monday night. Accompanying 
this system is a slight risk of severe along/ahead of its 
approach...which touches into our northwestern counties Monday-Monday 
night visa vi swody3. 


Long term...(tuesday through saturday) 
issued at 306 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


A 500mb southwest flow prevails at the beginning of the period with 
a weak short wave generally identified by the models moving NE 
across the forecast area Tuesday. This will yield the highest rain chances in 
higher relative humidity and dynamic fields over southeast MO vs. Farther southeast into 
the forecast area. The surface cold front's eastward progression across the forecast area 
will be sluggish before it possibly becomes stationary across the forecast area 
in the Thursday/Friday time frame. The expectation is for the cold front to 
approach the western part of the forecast area by Wednesday morning and move 
across much of the forecast area Wednesday/Wednesday night. The bottom line is 
the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Tuesday 
night over the west/southeast MO/SW Illinois and Tuesday night and Wednesday near and 
east of the Mississippi River. Given the slow progression of the 
middle/late week weather system...some decent...but probably not 
excessive..total rainfall amounts could occur. 


Regarding the threat of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and 
thereafter...the dynamics and instability will possibly favor 
some chance of severe weather in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. 
However...more exact timing and magnitude will be determined as 
model consistency improves. 


A gradual cooling trend can be expected by Thursday/Friday with cold air 
advection as surface winds become more northerly. 


&& 


Aviation... 
issued at 426 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


IFR visibilities in dense fog will occur at kcgi. MVFR ceilings are prevalent 
further east at kevv/kowb and may include periods of light drizzle 
or mist reducing visibilities to MVFR Cat as well. Kpah rests bestween 
and will flux from IFR to MVFR ceilings. Depending upon where the 
clearing line moves...visibilities could deteriorate in developing fog as 
well. After daybreak conditions improve and VFR rules should 
develop by late am...although low VFR ceilings are expected. Slight 
chance showers/storms is best east (kevv/kowb) but too little to 
mention as a prevailing condition at the terminals. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Illinois...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ilz084-088- 
092-093. 


MO...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for moz076-086- 
087-100-107>112-114. 


In...none. 
Kentucky...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for kyz001>004. 


&& 


$$