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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
539 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Update... 
issued at 535 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Update for 00z aviation only. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) 
issued at 259 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


There is a small possibility of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the far northeast sections this afternoon along 
a surface boundary/Theta-E gradient that will continue to lift 
northeast and eventually out of the area. Meanwhile...an 500 mb ridge 
building northeast across the region should preclude any 
additional convection area wide through the overnight hours. 


As the upper level ridge shifts east overnight...it will allow a 
slow moving system over the plains to approach the region...so 
precipitation chances should slowly increase from west to east on 
Monday...but only the northwest third of our County Warning Area to be affected by 
late Monday afternoon. 


As is typical over time...models continue to slow down the eastward 
progress of aforementioned system...but with that said chances for 
showers and thunderstorms should start to increase significantly 
across the region Monday night. However...the best chances for 
precipitation will be Tuesday and especially Tuesday night as the 
frontal boundary associated with this system begins to cross our 
County Warning Area. With plenty of moisture and instability in place and an 
increase in forcing both at the surface and aloft...chances of a few 
storms becoming severe is a distinct possibility...mainly over the 
northwest half of the County Warning Area through Tuesday night. 


Long term...(wednesday through sunday) 
issued at 259 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Primary surface cold front will move east across the lower Ohio 
Valley on Wednesday. Based on the latest model timing...it appears 
the warmest temperatures will actually be behind the front...where some 
partial clearing may occur in the afternoon. Ahead of the 
front...will carry likely probability of precipitation across SW Indiana and parts of 
western Kentucky. 


A secondary cold front will move southeast across the middle 
Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Thursday...associated with a 500 
mb shortwave rotating southeast across the Great Lakes region. There 
will likely be enough residual moisture/instability for scattered 
showers and maybe a few storms Thursday. 


Friday through Saturday appear dry and cooler as a strong surface 
high moves across the Great Lakes region. The lone outlier to this 
solution is the 12z European model (ecmwf)...which produces widespread convection in 
response to a warm front over the Kentucky/Tennessee border region. 
The 00z European model (ecmwf) is in good agreement with the 12z GFS/gefs and will be 
followed. 00z European model (ecmwf) MOS and 12z GFS MOS are in good agreement on 
high temperatures in middle to upper 70s both days. 


On Sunday...low level warm moist advection will begin on the back 
side of the retreating surface ridge. 12z GFS/00z European model (ecmwf) MOS remain 
in general agreement on slight chance probability of precipitation and a slow warming trend. 


&& 


Aviation... 
issued at 535 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


VFR conditions expected overnight with southerly winds around 10 knots. 
Some haze around evv and owb is expected to dissipate with sunset. 
Expect southerly flow to gust to near 20 after sunrise Monday. May 
have to introduce a low deck for last leg of taf at all 
sites...but forecast sounding are not sending a strong enough 
signal at this time. Will absolutely have to include low deck on next 
issuance which extends into Monday night. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Illinois...none. 
MO...none. 
In...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...kh 
aviation...kh