Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2014
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain showers in the afternoon. High of 52F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers, then snow showers after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 21F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90%.
Overcast with a chance of snow. High of 41F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 25F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 43F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 46F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 59F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 39F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 54F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Overcast. High of 54F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 54F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
... Freeze warning in effect from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday
to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday...
... Freeze watch is cancelled...
The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday
to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday. The freeze watch for tonight has
* Temperatures... readings will fall to near the freezing mark
Saturday morning... but cloud cover and precipitation should
prevent prolonged periods below freezing. Colder readings are
expected Sunday morning as The Heart of a much colder airmass
moves across the Ohio Valley. Expect temperatures to drop into
the 20s for many locations.
* Timing... calmer conditions Saturday night will mean a quicker
drop in temperatures compared to tonight... with some locations
reaching the freezing mark late Saturday evening.
* Impacts... the freezing temperatures this weekend should bring an
effective end to the growing season.
A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
... First snow of the winter season expected for much of the area
tonight and early Saturday morning...
A strong weather disturbance will drop southward out of Canada
and down through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. This
feature will bring widespread rain showers and windy conditions to
the area. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35
mph will be possible this afternoon and tonight. Much colder air
will filter into the region tonight resulting in the rain showers
changing over to snow showers before diminishing late tonight. Some
bands of moderate snow may develop over portions of central
Kentucky. While this snow will be fighting relatively warm ground
temperatures... an inch or less of slushy snow on grass and elevated
surfaces will be possible in areas east of a line from Frankfort
to Albany Kentucky. In areas out toward I-65 and points
west... little... if any... snow accumulation is expected.
With temperatures falling into the 30s tonight and winds gusting
into the 25 to 30 mph range... wind chill readings will make it
feel like it is in the 20s this evening.
Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards weather radio and your local media
for the latest on this winter weather situation.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Perryville, KY, Danville, KY
Updated: 1:31 PM EDT
|Temperature: 49.5 °F||Dew Point: 49 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: NW at 4.5 mph||Pressure: 30.11 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 48 °F||Graphs|
Location: Rocky Fork, Lancaster, KY
Updated: 1:33 PM EDT
|Temperature: 48.0 °F||Dew Point: 42 °F||Humidity: 80%||Wind: NW at 2.3 mph||Pressure: 29.81 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 48 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 1:33 PM EDT
|Temperature: 45.5 °F||Dew Point: 45 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.81 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 46 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 ..updated forecast and aviation discussions... ..Forecast update... issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 Decided to go ahead and cancel part of the freeze watch, for roughly the eastern half of the forecast area. Cloud cover and precipitation should keep those areas at 32-33 degrees tonight. The other half of the area looks to have lows of 30-31. Local policy is still being bent a little in favor of collaboration, as we typically require less than or equal to 30 degrees for 2 or more hours to verify a freeze warning. Issued an update to the Special Weather Statement as well, still looking for the best chance of snow over the eastern half of the forecast area, but this snow should not be a problem for accumulations, save for a slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Issued at 910 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 Tweaked pop grids to account for break in precip. Another round of light rain is coming in a few hours from the northwest, ahead of a cold front. That front will bring blustery conditions this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph later this afternoon and evening. As for the snow chances tonight, we are still on track for some banded precipitation to occur as the upper disturbance now over Lake Michigan dives into central Kentucky. Latest WRF arw had a north-south oriented band of precipitation along the I-65 corridor from 01-09z which will bear watching to see if it plays out. Latest hrrr doesn't quite go out that far in time. Short term (now through saturday)... issued at 300 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 ..windy conditions and falling temperatures expected today... ..Wintry mix likely this evening changing to snow with minor accumulations possible east of I-65... =================================== short term synopsis =================================== In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the area. Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to the northwest. This feature will swing through the region and allow much colder air to filter into the region from the northwest this morning and through the afternoon hours. Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio Valley tonight. This feature, combined with strong cold air advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere to produce widespread shower activity. As the colder air aloft descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late tonight and Saturday morning. Some of the snow showers this evening may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65. The strong upper trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but unseasonably cold temperatures are expected. =================================== Model preference & confidence =================================== Tonight's model guidance continues to show relatively good continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement. The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region. Thus, will be increasing pops for this afternoon and evening. All model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and northwesterly winds of 15-20 miles per hour with gusts up to 30-35 miles per hour will be possible late this afternoon and evening. The higher resolution models continue to show the strong potential for trowal formation on the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight. These trawl's's can set up banded heavy precipitation and with thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be possible across our eastern areas. Snow accumulations will continue to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded precipitation develops. Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this forecast. Have generally used a blend of the superblend model guidance for hourly T/TD which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS. We expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works in aloft from the NW/W. This drier air will infiltrate the entire region during the day on Saturday. Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than average for today and tonight given the relative low spread in the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Forecast confidence on temperatures is also higher than average for today and tonight. Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west to east during the afternoon hours. =================================== Sensible weather impacts =================================== For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region. Highs will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. Once the front clears the area this afternoon, northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 miles per hour with gusts of 30-35 miles per hour will be possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by early evening. As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow. It appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as thermal profiles cool sufficiently. At this time, rain will be the pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change over to snow occurring by 11pm to midnight. Surface temperatures this evening will likely remain above freezing. Thus any mixed precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous Road conditions are not expected. The combination of falling temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s. Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most likely after 3 am or so. Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be moderate to occasionally heavy at times. The snow will be fighting off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs. With this thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65. The highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east of US 27/127. Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible in this area. Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be further west and in the more drier air. If clearing takes place, temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees. The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude frost formation. With temperatures expected to be close to freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve continuity. However, it appears that Saturday night will be much more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze. For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region. However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be ongoing out across our far eastern sections. Slow clearing will work across the central parts of the region. It will be a cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the I-65 corridor and points west. Long term (saturday night through thursday)... issued at 244 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 ..sub-freezing temperatures expected Sunday morning... Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville Metro may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to the growing season. High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday morning. The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as temperatures this weekend. && Aviation (18z taf update)... updated at 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 Conditions beginning to worsen at the taf sites as a second upper level disturbance over northern Indiana is beginning to influence our weather. This system is forcing a cold front across the region at this time, with winds picking up at sdf and coming from the northwest at bwg. The best chance for precip will be at sdf/Lex, so have tempo groups there for MVFR at those sites, and cannot rule out IFR conditions either. Rain will switch over to snow at some point this evening at both sites, and will have to watch for bands of moderate snow to develop this evening. Winds should stay gusty from the north/northwest through the night as a tight pressure gradient remains across the region. && Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... Kentucky...freeze warning from 5 am EDT /4 am CDT/ to 10 am EDT /9 am CDT/ Saturday for kyz023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081. Freeze warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday for kyz023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082. In...freeze warning from 5 am EDT /4 am CDT/ to 10 am EDT /9 am CDT/ Saturday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092. Freeze warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........Rjs short term.....Mj long term......eer aviation.......rjs