Danville, Kentucky Weather Conditions

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Freeze Warning , Special Statement View All Alerts

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Current Conditions

  • 45°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: WNW 6 mph
  • Humidity: 93%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 43°
  • Pressure: 29.95 in. 0
  • Heat Index: 41

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Next 12 Hours

2  pm
5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
2  am
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
Chance of Snow
Chance of Snow
Chance of Snow
Chance of Snow
Snow Showers
Snow Showers
46°
39°
36°
32°
30°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Rain Showers
  • High: 52 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Rain Showers
  • Saturday
  • Chance of Snow
  • High: 41 °
  • Low: 25 °
  • Chance of Snow
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 48 °
  • Low: 32 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 61 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Tuesday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 61 °
  • Low: 46 °
  • Mostly Cloudy

Forecast for Danville, Kentucky

Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2014

Freeze warning in effect from 11 PM EDT Saturday to 9 am EST Sunday...
  • Friday

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain showers in the afternoon. High of 52F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers, then snow showers after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 21F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90%.

  • Saturday

    Overcast with a chance of snow. High of 41F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 25F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 32F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 43F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 46F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 59F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 54F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Overcast. High of 54F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 54F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Freeze Warning  Statement as of 10:34 am CDT on October 31, 2014/


... Freeze warning in effect from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday
to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday...
... Freeze watch is cancelled...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday
to 9 am EST /8 am CST/ Sunday. The freeze watch for tonight has
been cancelled.

* Temperatures... readings will fall to near the freezing mark
Saturday morning... but cloud cover and precipitation should
prevent prolonged periods below freezing. Colder readings are
expected Sunday morning as The Heart of a much colder airmass
moves across the Ohio Valley. Expect temperatures to drop into
the 20s for many locations.

* Timing... calmer conditions Saturday night will mean a quicker
drop in temperatures compared to tonight... with some locations
reaching the freezing mark late Saturday evening.

* Impacts... the freezing temperatures this weekend should bring an
effective end to the growing season.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.








 Special Statement  Statement as of 11:23 am CDT on October 31, 2014/


... First snow of the winter season expected for much of the area
tonight and early Saturday morning...

A strong weather disturbance will drop southward out of Canada
and down through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. This
feature will bring widespread rain showers and windy conditions to
the area. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35
mph will be possible this afternoon and tonight. Much colder air
will filter into the region tonight resulting in the rain showers
changing over to snow showers before diminishing late tonight. Some
bands of moderate snow may develop over portions of central
Kentucky. While this snow will be fighting relatively warm ground
temperatures... an inch or less of slushy snow on grass and elevated
surfaces will be possible in areas east of a line from Frankfort
to Albany Kentucky. In areas out toward I-65 and points
west... little... if any... snow accumulation is expected.

With temperatures falling into the 30s tonight and winds gusting
into the 25 to 30 mph range... wind chill readings will make it
feel like it is in the 20s this evening.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards weather radio and your local media
for the latest on this winter weather situation.



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Perryville, KY, Danville, KY

Updated: 1:31 PM EDT

Temperature: 49.5 °F Dew Point: 49 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: NW at 4.5 mph Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Rocky Fork, Lancaster, KY

Updated: 1:33 PM EDT

Temperature: 48.0 °F Dew Point: 42 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: NW at 2.3 mph Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: K. Bracketts Weather Station 39 N, Crab Orchard, KY

Updated: 1:33 PM EDT

Temperature: 45.5 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
127 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


..updated forecast and aviation discussions... 


..Forecast update... 
issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


Decided to go ahead and cancel part of the freeze watch, for roughly 
the eastern half of the forecast area. Cloud cover and precipitation 
should keep those areas at 32-33 degrees tonight. The other half of 
the area looks to have lows of 30-31. Local policy is still being 
bent a little in favor of collaboration, as we typically require 
less than or equal to 30 degrees for 2 or more hours to verify a 
freeze warning. 


Issued an update to the Special Weather Statement as well, still 
looking for the best chance of snow over the eastern half of the 
forecast area, but this snow should not be a problem for 
accumulations, save for a slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated 
surfaces. 


Issued at 910 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


Tweaked pop grids to account for break in precip. Another round of 
light rain is coming in a few hours from the northwest, ahead of a 
cold front. That front will bring blustery conditions this 
afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph later this afternoon and 
evening. 


As for the snow chances tonight, we are still on track for some 
banded precipitation to occur as the upper disturbance now over Lake 
Michigan dives into central Kentucky. Latest WRF arw had a 
north-south oriented band of precipitation along the I-65 corridor 
from 01-09z which will bear watching to see if it plays out. Latest 
hrrr doesn't quite go out that far in time. 


Short term (now through saturday)... 
issued at 300 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


..windy conditions and falling temperatures expected today... 


..Wintry mix likely this evening changing to snow with minor 
accumulations possible east of I-65... 


=================================== 
short term synopsis 
=================================== 


In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is 
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the 
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the 
area. Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to 
the northwest. This feature will swing through the region and allow 
much colder air to filter into the region from the northwest this morning 
and through the afternoon hours. 


Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop 
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio 
Valley tonight. This feature, combined with strong cold air 
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere 
to produce widespread shower activity. As the colder air aloft 
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers 
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late 
tonight and Saturday morning. Some of the snow showers this evening 
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor 
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65. The strong upper 
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on 
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but 
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected. 


=================================== 
Model preference & confidence 
=================================== 


Tonight's model guidance continues to show relatively good 
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement. 
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of 
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region. 
Thus, will be increasing pops for this afternoon and evening. All 
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and 
northwesterly winds of 15-20 miles per hour with gusts up to 30-35 miles per hour will be 
possible late this afternoon and evening. The higher resolution 
models continue to show the strong potential for trowal formation on 
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight. 
These trawl's's can set up banded heavy precipitation and with 
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current 
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be 
possible across our eastern areas. Snow accumulations will continue 
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm 
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded 
precipitation develops. 


Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this 
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the superblend model 
guidance for hourly T/TD which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps 
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS. We 
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper 
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works 
in aloft from the NW/W. This drier air will infiltrate the entire 
region during the day on Saturday. 


Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than 
average for today and tonight given the relative low spread in the 
deterministic and ensemble guidance. Forecast confidence on 
temperatures is also higher than average for today and tonight. 
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to 
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west 
to east during the afternoon hours. 


=================================== 
Sensible weather impacts 
=================================== 


For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the 
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this 
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region. Highs 
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in 
the southeast. Once the front clears the area this afternoon, 
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 miles per hour 
with gusts of 30-35 miles per hour will be possible this afternoon and evening. 


Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and 
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by 
early evening. As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work 
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow. It 
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as 
thermal profiles cool sufficiently. At this time, rain will be the 
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a 
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change 
over to snow occurring by 11pm to midnight. Surface temperatures 
this evening will likely remain above freezing. Thus any mixed 
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous Road 
conditions are not expected. The combination of falling 
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings 
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s. 


Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most 
likely after 3 am or so. Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas 
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be 
moderate to occasionally heavy at times. The snow will be fighting 
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be 
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs. With this 
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible 
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65. The 
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east 
of US 27/127. Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy 
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible 
in this area. 


Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be 
further west and in the more drier air. If clearing takes place, 
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees. 
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude 
frost formation. With temperatures expected to be close to 
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve 
continuity. However, it appears that Saturday night will be much 
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze. 


For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region. 
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be 
ongoing out across our far eastern sections. Slow clearing will 
work across the central parts of the region. It will be a 
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in 
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the 
I-65 corridor and points west. 


Long term (saturday night through thursday)... 
issued at 244 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


..sub-freezing temperatures expected Sunday morning... 


Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night 
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across 
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent 
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the 
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into 
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville Metro 
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to 
the growing season. 


High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and 
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through 
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to 
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning 
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday 
morning. 


The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure 
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may 
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk 
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday 
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out 
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday 
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of 
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as 
temperatures this weekend. 


&& 


Aviation (18z taf update)... 
updated at 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


Conditions beginning to worsen at the taf sites as a second upper 
level disturbance over northern Indiana is beginning to influence 
our weather. This system is forcing a cold front across the region 
at this time, with winds picking up at sdf and coming from the northwest at 
bwg. The best chance for precip will be at sdf/Lex, so have tempo 
groups there for MVFR at those sites, and cannot rule out IFR 
conditions either. Rain will switch over to snow at some point this 
evening at both sites, and will have to watch for bands of moderate 
snow to develop this evening. Winds should stay gusty from the 
north/northwest through the night as a tight pressure gradient 
remains across the region. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...freeze warning from 5 am EDT /4 am CDT/ to 10 am EDT /9 am CDT/ 
Saturday for kyz023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081. 


Freeze warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 am EST 
/8 am CST/ Sunday for kyz023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 
070>078-081-082. 


In...freeze warning from 5 am EDT /4 am CDT/ to 10 am EDT /9 am CDT/ 
Saturday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092. 


Freeze warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 am EST 
/8 am CST/ Sunday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092. 


&& 


$$ 


Update.........Rjs 
short term.....Mj 
long term......eer 
aviation.......rjs 










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