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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 43 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 41 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 52 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 52 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
435 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Update... 
aviation section has been updted below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 325 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


An amplified upper pattern should keep chances for rain 
and some thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday but then 
high pressure building in will dry things out into the weekend. 
Small chances for thunderstorms return by Saturday night and remain 
in the forecast through the extended with the strong upper ridge to 
the west breaking down and a possible pattern transition setting up. 
Temperatures will be below normal on the back side of the upper low 
from Thursday through Monday and then rebound. 


&& 


Near term /this evening and tonight/... 


Issued at 325 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Radar mosaic shows widely scattered showers over eastern Indiana 
with a line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from south of 
Terre Haute to north of Lafayette at 19z. This line is moving 
northeast around 30 miles per hour and should continue along at that 
rate...possibly still remaining over the eastern counties at 0z. 
There are also scattered showers occurring over central Illinois 
behind the line...but these are diurnal in nature and should start 
dissipating after sunset. Thus will trend probability of precipitation up with the line 
across the area this afternoon/evening and back down after it 
passes. Will keep isolated thunder going in the east for a few hours 
tonight with timing of the line still placing it nearby until after 
0z. Severe threat appears to be better east of the forecast 
area...although at this time still remain with east half in slight 
risk. 


For temperatures generally went near consensus...which was a little 
warmer than mav or met...with broken cloud cover expected and cold 
advection not amping up until Thursday morning. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Saturday/... 


Issued at 325 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Models are in decent agreement so will generally use a consensus. 
Upper trough axis is forecast to move through around midday 
Thursday. Looks like a vorticity maximum will be rotating through the trough 
axis as it moves through...but this happens more in the morning in 
the GFS and a bit later in the NAM. With cold air aloft moving 
through as well...expect to see some stratocu development along with 
scattered showers during the day Thursday. Models show some 
instability working into the eastern counties in the late morning to 
afternoon so added some isolated thunder there. By evening the axis 
will be off to the east and any precipitation should come to an 
end. Dry weather will then be in place through Saturday. One caveat 
to this is that the NAM is showing what looks like an mesoscale convective system developing 
over Minnesota Friday night and riding the ridge down into the area 
Saturday morning...but the GFS doesn/T show a similar feature and 
think predictability of such a feature this far out is pretty slim. 


For temperatures generally thought a MOS consensus should work out 
fine...with cold advection Thursday and Thursday night behind the 
cold frontal passage but then relatively stable 850 mb temperatures 
from Friday on. Temperatures will generally be below climatology in 
the 60s Thursday through Saturday...with lows bottoming out in the 
low to middle 40s Thursday night and Friday night. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 


Issued at 142 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Good correspondence between models and MOS derived from them. In 
particular...ensemble spread in the men product is quite low. No 
reason to make major changes in central region initialization. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 222100z kind taf update/... 


Issued at 435 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Minor tweaks made to kind taf to better match current conditions. No 
other changes needed at this time. Previous aviation discussion 
follows... 


Biggest issue is thunderstorms. There are likely to be some over 
the routes. Where they occur expect MVFR ceilings and 
visibilities...and possibly gusty winds. However timing and 
locations are so uncertain I cant even justify thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs. I 
will put in vcsh because showers should be more widespread. 


Expect amendments as thunderstorm forecast becomes more definite. 


Otherwise...expect ceilings of at least 35 hundred feet until 
Thursday morning when they will become MVFR after a frontal 
passage. Visibilities outside any precipitation p6sm. 


Southwest winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots this afternoon 
dropping to 10 knots or less after dark. Northwest winds 10-15 
knots developing Thursday. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...cp 
near term...cp 
short term...cp 
long term....jk 
aviation...jk/jh 


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