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Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service tiyan GU 620 PM chst Sat Sep 5 2015 Updated to add micronesia discussions Synopsis... radar shows isolated light showers across the coverage area...and satellite shows partly cloudy skies across the local region. Ascat analysis indicates a low-level circulation (invest area 92w) well northwest of Saipan near 16.5n 141.5e drifting away toward northwest with showers and thunderstorms within about 150 miles of its center. Buoys range from 3 to 4 feet and ritidian buoy shows a southwest wave component starting to arrive. VAD gradient winds are southwest 15 knots. && Discussion... the monsoon trough has moved northward to just above Saipan and west to southwest surface winds prevail across the forecast area. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast at this time...but models indicate that an area of scattered showers will develop just south of Guam by Monday or Tuesday...mainly between 10n and 13n. Some periods of scattered showers could yet affect our forecast zones during the coming week. && Marine... continue previous forecast trends. Southwest swell and wind waves will develop across the area while significantly larger and longer period swell moves our way from east-northeast this coming week. This long period swell emanating from typhoon kilo might cause surf along east facing reefs to build to high surf advisory levels by Tuesday or Wednesday. Its also possible that seas could build to Small Craft Advisory levels during the middle of next week. && Eastern micronesia... surface analysis shows weak circulations on the monsoon trough... one northwest of Majuro and a second northeast of Majuro near the dateline. Showers and thunderstorms are edging westward toward Pohnpei as the first circulation moves closer to Pohnpei. The second circulation is well northeast of Majuro and stays well north as it moves westward. However...there will be enough instability in the area to support isolated thunderstorms at Majuro through the weekend. Kosrae will remain south of most of the activity associated with the monsoon trough and the circulations. Wave models continue to indicate increasing north swell over the weekend and early next week as TY kilo drifts by north of Wake Island. The largest impact will be the far northern atolls of the Marshall Islands this weekend and early next week. The northern atolls should reduce the size of the swell reaching Majuro. Pohnpei and Chuuk will see long period north swell building early next week. Models show similar trends for Kosrae...but overall swell is expected to be slightly smaller. && Western micronesia... have decreased the shower coverage over Yap tonight as a weak circulation pulls the monsoon trough northward. Models indicate the monsoon trough will reestablish itself again farther south as a disturbance west of the marianas continues northwest. A drier pattern has become established at Chuuk but showers will build into the area Sunday night as the first circulation mentioned in the eastern micronesian discussion shifts to the west-northwest. Combined seas are still expected to increase at Chuuk next week... see discussion in eastern micronesia for more details on timing. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ Simpson/devita