Updated: 6:06 PM WAKT on January 25, 2015
Showers possible early. Lows overnight in the upper 70s.
Rain showers this evening with clearing overnight. Low 77F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
A few clouds from time to time. High around 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
A few isolated thunderstorms developing late under partly cloudy skies. Low 77F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Mostly sunny skies. High near 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy in the evening followed by scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Low 77F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy late. High around 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms later during the night. Low 78F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High near 85F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Isolated thunderstorms during the evening, then partly cloudy overnight. Low 78F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms in the morning. High around 85F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 77F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy and windy. High near 85F. Winds E at 20 to 30 mph.
Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Low 78F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy and windy in the morning with isolated thunderstorms developing later in the day. High around 85F. Winds E at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy skies early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later at night. Low 78F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late. High around 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Isolated thunderstorms during the evening, then partly cloudy overnight. Low 78F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High near 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Clear skies early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later at night. Low 78F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the morning. High near 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Partly cloudy skies early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later at night. Low 78F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 335 PM chst Monday may 25 2015 Synopsis... only a few showers are seen this afternoon well southeast of Guam. VAD wind profile shows gentle southeast winds...slowly shifting towards the east. A weak monsoon trough along 10n stretches eastward to a disturbance north of Pohnpei. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near this disturbance. && Discussion... the disturbance north of Pohnpei will slowly track west the next couple days. Models keep this disturbance weak...bringing mainly an increase in clouds and a better chance of showers middle and late week. Winds will become light and variable Thursday and Friday. Combined seas will diminish another foot by Friday. Will have to keep a close watch for afternoon island convection later this week due to the light winds expected over the marianas. && Climate... latest enso diagnostic update from climate prediction center confirms that a weak El Nino continues. The marianas have had a wetter than normal dry season...micronesia is having a rather busy tropical cyclone season so far and Palau has been dry. Palau has received about 50 percent of its normal monthly rainfall so far...and 58 percent its normal rainfall for the year. If the deficit grows much larger we may need to start issuing drought statements. There appears to be little relief in the near-term. The gfs40 predicts less than a quarter of an inch the next 10 days while the European model (ecmwf)-hires predicts about an inch. The latest forecasts from the climate prediction center are for an 80 percent chance that this El Nino continues through the end of the year. The model plumes indicate it could grow from weak to moderate or even strong in that time. The European model (ecmwf) ensemble plume even hints at a chance this could be an extreme to record event. This is definitely a situation to monitor closely. && Eastern micronesia... visible satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover and showers east and southeast of the Marshall Islands in association with trade- wind convergence. Models show the main convergence line maintaining an appreciable amount of convection just north of Majuro through Tuesday night so opted for at least keeping mostly cloudy wording through the time period. In the long term...light to gentle east-NE flow and dry conditions will prevail from midweek to the weekend. A dry pattern will persist over Kosrae through the weekend. No major weather features will impact the state over the next several days. Satellite-derived lightning data revealed at least a few strikes near the Pohnpei Airport this afternoon. Light winds will pose an afternoon thunderstorm threat to Pohnpei over the next couple of days. Otherwise...mainly dry conditions will persist across Pohnpei and Kosrae states for the next several days with models depicting main line of convection remaining north of both locations through the week. && Western micronesia... light west winds tonight at Chuuk will gradually shift to the southeast by Thursday as the eastern end of a diffuse monsoon trough retreats westward over the next few days. European model (ecmwf) and navgem bring increased shower activity to Chuuk Wednesday and Thursday with GFS maintaining a mostly dry pattern across the state through this week. Cloud cover and shower activity is poised to increase Wednesday and Thursday over Chuuk as low-level convergence increases on the eastern side of a broad circulation that is expected to develop out of the weak monsoon trough. However...maintained isolated shower coverage during this time until models come into better agreement in this scenario. Convection on the north end of the weak monsoon trough is dissipating over Yap. Models are in good agreement in developing another band of showers overnight but with a displacement to the north of Yap. Otherwise...quiet conditions will persist across Koror and Yap through the remainder of the week. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ M. Aydlett/Williams